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USDA International Egg and Poultry

15 April 2015

USDA International Egg and Poultry - 15 April 2015USDA International Egg and Poultry - 15 April 2015

USDA International Egg and Poultry

Brazil’s 2015 Poultry and Products Semi-Annual Report


USDA FAS Brazil revised its previous forecast for broiler production to increase 2.5% in 2015. This increase will mostly be driven by higher exports stimulated by the depreciation of the Brazilian Real. Despite the 28% devaluation of the Brazilian Real since August 2014, which should boost broiler exports, there are major uncertainties with Brazil’s economic outlook that could affect production (i.e. unpopular government cuts and tax hikes, rising inflation, rising unemployment, power shortages and higher energy costs, and a possibility of energy rationing). Broiler production estimates for 2014 were also revised to slightly higher numbers to reflect final numbers obtained from industry. Producer margins are expected to be positive for the second consecutive year, but at a declining rate, as cost of production continues to increase.

Moderate growth is expected in Brazilian turkey production in 2015 due to the sluggish economic outlook in Brazil. Turkey production estimates for 2014 were reduced to 480,000 MT as demand has slowed due to higher turkey prices in comparison to competing proteins such as broiler meat.


FAS Brazil revised broiler meat consumption forecasts downward for 2015 to 9.35 MMT as consumption is expected to increase at a slower pace due to the sluggish economic outlook and continued high level of indebtedness of Brazilian consumers despite competitive pricing against other proteins.


Brazil’s broiler exports are expected to grow at a rate of 3% to 4% in 2015 to be 3.7 MMT, mostly driven by the devaluation of the Real. Brazilian exporters are expected to maintain or expand the 5 traditional and most important markets: Saudi Arabia, Japan, Hong Kong, UAE, and the EU. However China and Russia will be key areas for expansion in 2015.

Broiler exports to China, Brazil’s 6th largest market, and Russia increased in January 2015 from January 2014 16% and 80% respectively. However exporters are cautious and moderate growth is expected to China, Russia, Venezuela, and Angola with uncertainties related to reduced number of approved Brazilian plants (China), lower international oil prices (Russia, Venezuela, Angola), possible lifting of trade bans on the EU and US (Russia), payment defaults (Venezuela), and a recent ban on food imports (Angola). Recently, South Africa and Pakistan opened their markets to Brazilian poultry, however markets remained closed in Indonesia to Brazilian, which is why Brazil has opened a panel in the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Indonesia.

Per the depreciation of the Real, turkey meat exports are forecast to moderately increase 4,000 MT to a total of 130,000 MT in 2015 with increased exports to Angola, South Africa, Peru, and Chile, among other markets in the Middle East. Exports in 2014 declined significantly to the EU (-22%) as producers continue to face difficulties with market access into the EU. Source: USDA FAS Gain Report BR0959.

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