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USDA International Egg and Poultry

09 April 2015

USDA International Egg and Poultry - 9 April 2015USDA International Egg and Poultry - 9 April 2015

USDA International Egg and Poultry

China is the world’s second largest poultry producer. It is forecast that China’s 2015 broiler meat production will increase slightly above previous estimates of 13 million tons as producers capitalize on the ban on United States (U.S.) imports due high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). However, China continues to experience periodic avian influenza (AI) resulting in production disruptions.

As of March 25, 2015 there were 4 H5N1 AI human cases reported and more than 40 H7N9 AI cases for 2015 in China. Some areas in China lost up to $1.6 billion in 2014 due to AI. To minimize chances of AI spreading to humans the Chinese government is trying to end live bird slaughtering at wet markets by encouraging farmers to send their chickens to slaughter houses. Demand for live birds may also decline over time due to China’s urbanization and the younger generation’s preference for processed chicken sold at fast food outlets and fresh/frozen broiler meat products sold in supermarkets.

Broiler meat consumption in China has been sluggish over the last several years despite annual GDP growth of 6-7 percent. Demand has been hampered by continued AI outbreaks and resulting publicity. Currently, demand is being influenced by a slower economy and decreasing corporate gift sales due to anti-corruption policies. China’s estimated 2015 per capita broiler meat consumption is slightly above 9 kilograms (kg), down from 10 kg in 2014. Estimated total broiler meat consumption for 2015 is 12,775,000 metric tons (MT), 6% below 2011’s 13,543, 000 MT peak but 29% above 2004. Even though the availability of lower cost pork as a substitute meat is also restraining poultry demand, forecasts are the poultry market will likely rebound from the end of 3 rd quarter 2015 due to anticipation of the pork supply tightening then.

China is forecast to export 460,000 MT of broiler meat in 2015, 5% above 2014 and up 91% since 2004. The primary destinations for China’s broiler meat exports are Japan, Hong Kong and Malaysia. China’s total broiler meat imports for 2015 are forecast to be 235, 000 MT, 2% below 2014 but up 35% since 2004. In 2014 China imported broiler meat primarily from Brazil, United States (U.S.), Argentina and Chile. China is expected to approve 8 new Brazilian poultry facilities in 2015 resulting in 36 total approved plants.

U.S. broiler meat exports to China in 2014 dropped 10% from 2013, but are up 621% since 2004. Effective January 9, 2015 all poultry products are ineligible for export to China due to HPAI found in the U.S. In response, the U.S. is seeking exemption for heat-treated poultry products. U.S. total January-February 2015 broiler meat exports to China are down 84% while total broiler meat, turkey meat, other poultry meat and egg products are 68% lower than 2014.

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