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USDA International Meat Review


10 December 2014

USDA International Meat Review 11 December 2014USDA International Meat Review 11 December 2014


USDA International Meat Review

North America

On December 2, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. According to the publication, fiscal year (FY) 2015 U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $143.5 billion. This was down from the previous estimate of $144.5 billion. Also, this was down from $152.5 billion in 2014. Exports of livestock products during 2015 are forecast at $20.6 billion, up from the prior estimate of $19.8 billion. This is 3.0 percent higher than 2014. Beef and veal exports during 2015 are projected to total 900,000 MT, unchanged from the previous forecast. This is 3.6 percent more than 2014. The value of beef and veal exports is forecast at a record $6.6 billion on higher prices due to tight supplies and strong global demand. This is compared to $6.04 in 2014. During 2015, U.S. pork exports are expected to equal 1.8 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 1.7 MMT, due to strong demand.

This is 5.2 percent more than 2014. The value of pork exports is projected to total $5.5 billion, compared to $5.68 in 2014. Beef and pork variety meat exports during 2014 are forecast at 800,000 MT, unchanged from the prior estimate. This is up a little over 2014. The value of variety meat exports is forecast at $1.7 billion, compared to $1.61 billion in 2014. FY 2014 U.S. agricultural imports are forecast to value $116.0 billion. This is down from the prior estimate of $117.0 billion. However, this is up from $109.2 billion in 2014. The value of livestock and meat imports in 2015 is expected to total $12.9 billion, up from the previous estimate of $11.9 billion. Also, this is 7.0 percent greater than 2014. Imports of cattle and calves in 2015 are forecast to total 2.3 million head. This is up from the prior forecast of 2.1 million head and is up 2.2 percent over 2014. Demand for feeder cattle is driven in part by lower corn prices.

Favorable weather and U.S. pasture conditions may also boost backrounding of feeder calves. The value of imported cattle and calves is expected to be $2.6 billion in 2015. During 2015, beef and veal imports are projected to total 900,000 MT. This is unchanged from the previous estimate but is 1.5 percent higher than 2014 due to declining cow slaughter resulting in tight domestic supplies of processing beef. The value of beef and veal imports is predicted to equal $5.3 billion in 2015. Live swine imports during 2015 are forecast at 4.8 million head, which is unchanged from the previous forecast but is 1.0 percent more than 2014. The value of imported live swine is expected to be $400 million in 2015. During 2015, pork imports are projected to total 400,000 MT, unchanged from the prior estimate but 3.1 percent lower than 2014 as the result of higher domestic production. The value of pork imports is predicted to equal $1.7 billion in 2015. The entire report is available on the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov/. On November 21, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its monthly Cattle on Feed report. According to the data, cattle and calves on feed for the U.S. slaughter market for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head on November 1, 2014 equaled 10.63 million head.

This was a little more than one year ago but was 5.5 percent less than two years ago. During October, 2.36 million head of cattle were placed on feed, which was down nearly 1.0 percent from one year ago but was up 8.1 percent over two years ago. This was the second lowest October placements since the series began in 1996. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds totaled 690,000 head, which was 4.2 percent less than last year. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds were down 1.4 percent from last year, amounting to 570,000 head. Feeder cattle placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds equaled 462,000 head, 8.5 percent lower than a year ago. Finally, placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds totaled 635,000 head, which was 10.4 percent more than last year. In the meantime, during October, fed cattle marketings fell 7.8 percent from one year ago and 8.3 percent from two years ago to 1.69 million head. This was the lowest October marketings since the series began. The entire report is available on the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

North America (continued)

On November 21, USDA NASS released its monthly Cold Storage report. According to the report, as of October 31, 2014, beef in U.S. cold storage facilities equaled 374.9 million pounds. This was 14.8 percent less than last year and was 12.0 percent less than the five year average. More specifically, boneless beef in cold storage totaled 337.6 million pounds, which was 14.5 percent lower than a year ago. Beef cuts in cold storage equaled 37.3 million pounds, 17.7 percent less than year. Meanwhile, at the end of October, 524.8 million pounds of pork was in U.S. cold storage. This was down 7.1 percent from the previous year and was down 1.2 percent from the five year average. Specifically, the volume of hams in storage equaled 163.1 million pounds, which was 15.5 percent lower than a year ago. The volume of pork bellies in storage was 4.5 percent above last year, totaling 27.9 million pounds. Pork loins in storage equaled 23.4 million pounds, 17.7 percent less than a year ago. The volume of ribs in storage was down 15.7 percent from a year ago, amounting to 63.9 million pounds. Pork butts in cold storage totaled 21.0 million pounds, which was 10.2 percent higher than last year. Pork trimmings in storage totaled 36.7 million pounds, which was up 5.6 percent over a year ago. The volume of pork variety meats in cold storage was up 6.0 percent over last year, totaling 28.3 million pounds. Veal in U.S. cold storage equaled 3.5 million pounds, 8.6 percent lower than last year. Lamb and mutton in cold storage totaled 38.7 million pounds, which was 61.3 percent more than a year ago. To obtain the entire report, go to the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

Pacific Rim

Recently, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) published South Korea’s beef and pork import numbers for October 2014. According to the data, during October, South Korea imported 23,210 MT of beef, which was 11.6 percent less than the previous month and was 16.5 percent less than October 2013. Specifically, imports of frozen beef totaled 18,993 MT, which comprised 81.8 percent of the total. Imports of fresh, chilled beef totaled 4,217 MT. South Korea’s total beef imports from Australia during October fell 11.7 percent from September and fell 7.9 percent from October 2013 to 13,330 MT. Year-to-date beef imports from Australia totaled 130,359 MT, which was 8.6 percent above last year. Australia was the primary beef import market for South Korea with 54.4 percent of the total. During October, South Korea imported 7,760 MT of beef from the U.S. This was 11.6 percent less than the previous month and was 28.2 percent less than October 2013. Total year-to date beef imports from the U.S. were 11.4 percent more than last year, amounting to 87,186 MT. Beef imports from New Zealand during October equaled 1,792 MT. This was down 15.5 percent from the previous month and was down 23.0 percent from October 2013. Total year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand equaled 19,707 MT, 11.0 percent less than a year ago.

Overall, South Korea’s total year-to-date beef imports equaled 239,824 MT, which was 7.7 percent above the corresponding period a year ago. In the meantime, South Korea’s pork imports during October totaled 31,648 MT. This was up 5.9 percent over the previous month and was up 38.3 percent over October 2013. During October, South Korea imported 6,545 MT of pork from the U.S., which was 13.2 percent lower than the previous month but was 13.6 percent higher than October 2013. Year-to-date pork imports from the U.S. were 2.6 percent more than a year ago, amounting to 92,086 MT. The U.S. was the main supplier of pork to South Korea with 31.2 percent of the total imports. Pork imports from Germany during October rose 3.6 percent over the previous month to 6,345 MT. Also, this was 72.4 percent more than October 2013. Total year-to date pork imports from Germany equaled 51,880 MT, which was 88.9 percent greater than last year. During October, South Korea imported 3,603 MT of pork from Canada. This was up 3.5 percent over the previous month and was up 9.9 percent over October 2013. Year-to-date pork imports from Canada totaled 29,388 MT, which was 12.5 percent less than last year. Overall, South Korea’s total year-to-date pork imports equaled 295,485 MT, 17.6 percent above the same period a year ago. Additional data on South Korea’s red meat trade can be found on the KITA website at http://www.kita.org/.

Oceania

Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) recently published Australia’s red meat export data for November 2014. According to the numbers, Australia’s beef and veal exports during November fell 8.2 percent from the previous month to 112,396 MT. However, this was up 12.6 percent over November 2013. More specifically, exports of frozen beef equaled 84,550 MT, which accounted for 75.2 percent of the total. Exports of fresh, chilled beef equaled 27,846 MT. Australia’s beef exports to the U.S. during November fell 8.5 percent from the previous month but rose 121.3 percent over November 2013 to 39,089 MT. Year-to-date beef exports to the U.S. were 83.1 percent above a year ago, totaling 357,075 MT. The U.S. was the primary beef export market for Australia with 30.5 percent of the total. During November, Australia exported 26,578 MT of beef to Japan. Although this was 5.6 percent lower than the previous month, it was 6.3 percent higher than November 2013. Total year-to-date beef exports to Japan equaled 266,933 MT, which was up a little over a year ago.

During November, Australia’s beef exports to South Korea equaled 13,690 MT. This was up 1.8 percent over the previous month but was down 8.3 percent from November 2013. Year-to-date beef exports to South Korea totaled 136,616 MT, 6.6 percent greater than a year ago. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date beef and veal exports equaled 1,171,552 MT, which was 16.8 percent above the corresponding period a year ago. Australia’s lamb exports during November totaled 19,088 MT. This was 21.1 percent lower than October and was 3.6 percent lower than November 2013. During November, Australia exported 5,285 MT of lamb to the Middle East, which was down 15.8 percent from the previous month but was up 2.5 percent over November 2013. Total year-to-date lamb exports to the Middle East were 6.3 percent more than last year, amounting to 58,436 MT. The Middle East was Australia’s largest lamb export market with 27.0 percent of the total. During November, Australia’s lamb exports to the U.S. totaled 3,993 MT. This was 22.3 percent lower than the previous month but was 18.9 percent higher than November 2013. Total year-to-date lamb exports to the U.S. equaled 42,760 MT, 20.3 percent greater than a year ago. Lamb exports to China during November fell 24.4 percent from the previous month and 27.5 percent from November 2013 to 2,882 MT. Year-to-date lamb exports to China totaled 36,600 MT, 1.9 percent higher than a year ago.

Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date lamb exports reached 216,319 MT, 11.8 percent more than the same period a year ago. In the meantime, Australia’s mutton exports during November fell 1.1 percent from the previous month to 18,215 MT. However, this was up 6.0 percent over November 2013. During November, Australia exported 4,705 MT of mutton to the Middle East, which was 1.1 percent higher than the previous month and was 59.0 percent higher than November 2013. Year-to-date mutton exports to the Middle East totaled 47,754 MT, 27.5 percent above a year ago. The Middle East was Australia’s main mutton export mutton with 28.8 percent of the total. Australia’s mutton exports to China during November rose 25.5 percent over the previous month to 6,205 MT. However, this was down 12.3 percent from November 2013. Year-to-date mutton exports to China totaled 44,017 MT, which was 12.7 percent less than last year. Mutton exports to the U.S. during November equaled 1,733 MT, which was 14.3 percent more than the previous month and was 211.1 percent more than November 2013. Total year-to-date mutton exports to the U.S. equaled 11,650 MT, 43.2 percent greater than last year. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date mutton exports equaled 165,682 MT, 7.9 percent above the corresponding period a year ago. Additional data on Australia’s exports is available on the DAFF website at http://www.daff.gov.au/.

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