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USDA International Meat Review


28 October 2014

USDA International Meat Review - 23 October 2014USDA International Meat Review - 23 October 2014


USDA International Meat Review

Trade Highlights

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently released Livestock and Products Annual 2014 for the countries of Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Mexico and Russia. The reports include summaries, outlooks, slaughter data, livestock inventories, trade situation updates, consumption statistics, marketing and price analysis and current data on production and supply. Each report is available on the FAS Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) at http://gain.fas.usda.gov/. Recently, USDA FAS released its bi-annual publication, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. According to the report, 2015 total world beef and veal production is forecast at 58.74 MMT. This is 1.4 percent lower than 2014. U.S. beef production during 2015 is forecast at 10.87 MMT, which is down 2.3 percent from 2014 because of tight supplies and higher prices. The U.S. is expected to remain the world’s leading beef producing nation. Brazil is projected to be the second largest beef producing country in 2015 with 10.22 MMT, which is 3.0 percent more than 2014. Total 2015 world beef and veal exports are expected to increase 1.7 percent over 2014 to 9.94 MMT. Brazil is expected to be the largest beef exporting country in 2015 with a 2.24 MMT, which is 10.1 percent greater than 2014.

India’s beef exports during 2015 are projected to total 1.95 MMT, which is up 5.4 percent over 2014. India is the second largest beef exporting country. Beef exports from Australia during 2015 are expected to equal 1.59 MMT, 10.4 percent less than the record setting export levels of 2014. The decline is the result of tight supplies of slaughter ready cattle. During 2015, beef exports from the U.S. are projected to decrease 2.9 percent from 2014 to 1.15 MMT. During 2015, world beef and veal imports are forecast to reach 8.05 MMT, 2.2 percent more than 2014. The U.S. is forecast to be the primary beef importing country in 2015 with 1.23 MMT, which is a little higher than 2014. Russia, the second largest beef importing nation, is expected to import 825,000 MT of beef, which is unchanged from 2014. Japan’s beef imports during 2015 are forecast at 740,000 MT, down 1.3 percent from 2014 due to competition with China for supplies of frozen boneless beef primal cuts. Hong Kong is forecast to import 750,000 MT of beef during 2015, which is 15.4 percent greater than 2014. Meanwhile, FAS forecast 2015 world pork production at 111.85 MMT, which is up 1.1 percent over 2014. During 2015, China’s pork production is projected to reach 57.35 MMT, 1.5 percent higher than 2014.

China is the world’s leading pork producing nation with more than half of the world’s pork production. Pork production in the European Union, the second largest pork producing country, during 2015 is forecast at 22.37 MMT. This is down slightly from 2014 as production is constrained by animal welfare regulations and poor returns in 2014. U.S. pork production during 2015 is expected to rise 5.1 percent over 2014 to 10.86 MMT. The increase is the result of increased farrowings, a gradual recovery in pigs per litter, and heavier weights. World pork exports in 2015 are projected to total 7.20 MMT, which is 3.7 percent higher than 2014. U.S. pork exports during 2015 are forecast to equal 2.38 MMT, up 2.6 percent over 2014 due to greater supplies and lower prices. The U.S. is the leading pork exporting country. The EU is projected to export 2.20 MMT of pork during 2015, which is 2.3 percent more than 2014. Trade has mostly been redirected to China and South Korea to aid in offsetting the loss of Russia, their largest market. During 2015, Canada is expected to export 1.18 MMT of pork, which is unchanged from 2014. During 2015, world pork imports are forecast at 6.32 MMT, 1.2 percent greater than 2014. Japan, the main pork importing nation, is expected to import 1.28 MMT of pork during 2015. This is down 3.4 percent from 2014. During 2015, China’s pork imports are expected to increase 23.5 percent over 2014 to a record 1.00 MMT. U.S. pork imports during 2015 are forecast at 408,000 MT, 5.1 percent less than 2014. To view the complete report, go to the FAS website at http://www.fas.usda.gov/livestock_arc.asp.

 North America

Recently, CanFax released Canada’s current cattle on feed numbers for terminal feedlots with 1,000 or more head in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. According to the data, on October 1, 2014, Canada’s cattle on feed totaled 700,963 head. This was 3.0 percent lower than one year ago and was slightly lower than the five year average. During September, 247,072 head of cattle were placed on feed. This was 2.8 percent less than one year ago and was 4.4 percent less than the five year average. The number of steers placed on feed totaled 160,504 head, which accounted for 65.0 percent of the total. Heifers placed on feed totaled 86,568 head. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds equaled 15,227 head, 102.9 percent more than last year. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds were up 17.4 percent over a year ago, amounting to 15,882 head. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds totaled 39,116 head, which was 6.5 percent less than last year. Finally, placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds were down 7.5 percent from a year ago, totaling 176,847 head. Meanwhile, Canada’s fed cattle marketings during September rose 5.6 percent over a year ago to 150,702 head. However, this was 3.9 percent lower than the five year average. To obtain the entire report, visit the CanFax website at http://www.canfax.ca/.

Pacific Rim

The Korea International Trade Association (KITA) recently released South Korea’s beef and pork import data for September 2014. According to the numbers, South Korea’s beef imports during September totaled 26,258 MT. This was 11.0 percent higher than the previous month and was 17.8 percent higher than September 2013. More specifically, frozen beef imports equaled 22,200 MT, which accounted for 84.5 percent of the total. Fresh, chilled beef imports equaled 4,053 MT, of which Australia’s share was 74.5 percent. During September, South Korea’s beef imports from Australia totaled 15,092 MT, which was up 22.2 percent over the previous month and was up 15.9 percent over September 2013. Also, this was the largest single month volume since January 2008. During the first three quarters of the year, South Korea imported 117,029 MT of beef from Australia, which was 10.9 percent more than a year ago. Australia was South Korea’s main source for beef imports with 54.0 percent of the total. Imports of beef from the U.S. during September totaled 8,778 MT. This was 4.5 percent less than the previous month but was 19.8 percent more than September 2013. During the first three quarters, South Korea’s beef imports from the U.S. were 17.8 percent above last year, amounting to 79,426 MT. The U.S. was South Korea’s second largest beef import market with 36.7 percent of the total.

During September, South Korea imported 2,120 MT of beef from New Zealand. This was up 19.7 percent over the previous month and was up 21.4 percent over September 2013. Year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand equaled 17,915 MT, 9.6 percent less than last year. Overall, South Korea’s total beef imports during the first three quarters of 2014 equaled 216,614 MT, 11.1 percent greater than the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, during September, South Korea imported 29,875 MT of pork, which was up 2.1 percent over August and was up 34.8 percent over September 2013. South Korea’s pork imports from the U.S. during September fell 3.9 percent from the previous month to 7,540 MT. However, this was 32.0 percent higher than September 2013. Total year-to-date pork imports from the U.S. equaled 85,542 MT, 1.8 percent more than a year ago. The U.S. was the primary supplier of pork to South Korea with 32.4 percent of the total imports.

During September, pork imports from Germany equaled 6,108 MT. This was up 7.0 percent over the previous month and was up 118.8 percent over September 2013. During the first three quarters of the year, South Korea imported 25,763 MT of pork from Germany, which was 91.4 percent above last year. South Korea’s pork imports from Canada during September rose 13.4 percent over the previous month and 3.6 percent over September 2013 to 25,763 MT. Total year-to-date pork imports from Canada equaled 25,763 MT, 15.0 percent less than last year. Overall, during the first three quarters of 2014, South Korea imported 263,815 MT of pork, which was 15.5 percent greater than the corresponding period a year ago. To obtain further data on South Korea’s red meat trade, visit the KITA website at http://www.kita.org/.

 Japan’s Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC) recently released Japan’s August 2014 beef and pork import data. According to the statistics, during August, Japan imported 58,104 MT of beef. This was 24.2 percent higher than the previous month and was 6.3 percent higher than August 2013. Also, this was the highest single month volume since July 2013. More specifically, imports of frozen beef equaled 38,655 MT, which was 48.5 percent more than the previous month and was 8.9 percent more than August 2013. Imports of fresh, chilled beef equaled 19,401 MT, which was 6.3 percent less than the previous month but was 1.7 percent more than August 2013. During August, Japan’s beef imports from Australia rose 21.8 percent over July and 1.7 percent over August 2013 to 29,428 MT. Year-to-date beef imports from Australia totaled 183,071 MT, which was 6.6 percent lower than last year. Australia was the primary beef import market for Japan with 53.5 percent of the total. Beef imports from the U.S. during August totaled 21,713 MT, which was up 19.8 percent over the previous month and was up 8.7 percent over August 2013. Total year-to-date beef imports from the U.S. were 2.0 percent greater than a year ago, amounting to 125,763 MT.

Japan’s beef imports from New Zealand during August equaled 2,184 MT. This was up a little over the previous month but was down 14.7 percent from August 2013. Year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand totaled 17,984 MT, 23.1 percent lower than last year. Overall, Japan’s total year-to-date beef imports equaled 342,195 MT, which was 6.6 percent below the corresponding period a year ago. During July, Japan’s beef marketings equaled 72,910 MT, which was 12.4 percent higher than the previous month but was 10.5 percent lower than a year ago. Imported beef marketings were down 12.2 percent from last year, amounting to 43,807 MT. Marketings of domestic beef totaled 29,102 MT, which was 7.7 percent less than a year ago. Japan’s beef stocks at the end of July equaled 115,674 MT, which was up 4.5 percent over the previous month but was down 5.9 percent from last year. Imported beef stocks totaled 101,508 MT, which was 7.5 percent lower than last year. Domestic beef stocks were 6.6 percent more than last year, totaling 14,166 MT.

During August, Japan imported 68,904 MT of pork. Although this was down 23.1 percent from July, it was up 6.6 percent over August 2013. Specifically, frozen pork imports totaled 47,870 MT, which was 26.2 percent lower than the previous month but was 23.2 percent higher than August 2013. Fresh, chilled pork imports totaled 21,033 MT, which was 15.1 percent lower than the previous month and was 18.5 percent lower than August 2013. Japan’s pork imports from the U.S. during August fell 31.8 percent from the previous month and fell 11.2 percent from August 2013 to 20,595 MT. Year-to-date pork imports from the U.S. were slightly less than a year ago, totaling 187,881 MT. The U.S. was the main source for Japan’s pork imports with 33.8 percent of the total. During August, Japan’s pork imports from Canada equaled 10,339 MT. This was down 20.5 percent from the previous month and was down 19.5 percent from August 2013. Total year-to-date pork imports from Canada equaled 95,994 MT, 5.0 percent more than last year. Pork imports from Denmark during August equaled 11,322 MT, which was 29.7 percent lower than the previous month but was 18.3 percent higher than August 2013.

Year-to-date pork imports from Denmark were 26.7 percent more than last year, amounting to 92,961 MT. Overall, Japan’s total year-to-date pork imports equaled 555,736 MT, which was 14.1 percent above the same period a year ago. During July, Japan’s pork marketings totaled 145,539 MT. This was 18.9 percent higher than the previous month and was 4.2 percent higher than a year ago. Imported pork marketings were 9.0 percent more than last year, amounting to 71,206 MT. Marketings of domestic pork equaled 74,333 MT, which was unchanged from a year ago. At the end of July, Japan’s pork stocks totaled 204,898 MT. This was 8.8 percent more than the previous month and was 21.2 percent more than a year ago. Stocks of imported pork were up 26.1 percent over a year ago, totaling 185,341 MT. Domestic pork stocks totaled 19,557 MT, 11.8 percent less than last year. Additional data is available on the ALIC website at http://lin.alic.go.jp/alic/statis/dome/data2/e_nstatis.htm.

On October 22, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its monthly Cold Storage report. According to the data, beef in U.S. cold storage on September 30, 2014 equaled 373.3 million pounds. This was down 16.1 percent from a year ago and was down 12.1 percent from the five year average. Specifically, boneless beef in cold storage totaled 333.5 million pounds, 16.9 percent lower than a year ago. Beef cuts in storage equaled 39.8 million pounds, which was 8.9 percent less than last year. Meanwhile, U.S. pork in cold storage as of September 30 totaled 545.0 million pounds. This was 4.0 percent less than a year ago but was 3.1 percent more than the five year average. More specifically, hams in cold storage equaled 194.1 million pounds, 12.4 percent lower than last year. The volume of pork bellies in storage increased 43.9 percent over last year to 33.8 million pounds. The volume of pork loins in cold storage fell 14.5 percent from a year ago to 20.2 million pounds. Pork ribs in storage totaled 50.9 million pounds, 9.3 percent less than a year ago. Pork trimmings in storage equaled 35.0 million pounds, which was down 8.6 percent from last year. The volume of variety meats in storage was 23.4 percent higher than a year ago, amounting to 34.5 million pounds. Veal in cold storage totaled 2.3 million pounds, which was 49.1 percent lower than last year. Lamb and mutton in storage equaled 39.7 million pounds, 69.3 percent greater than a year ago. The complete report can be found on the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

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