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USDA GAIN: Livestock and Products

13 October 2014

USDA GAIN: Russia Livestock and Products Annual 2014USDA GAIN: Russia Livestock and Products Annual 2014

FAS/Moscow forecasts Russian imports of cattle to remain relatively flat in 2015 (i.e., 100,000 head) as livestock importers continue to improve the quality of their genetics. FAS/Moscow also forecasts a slight increase in domestic beef production (to 1.4 MMT) next year given the anticipated rate of slaughter. Imports of live swine are forecast to fall off in 2015 as a result of increased domestic production and trade restrictions due to disease outbreaks in Europe and North America. Russian pork production is forecast to increase by nearly 6.5 percent in 2015 (to 2.82 MMT) which, in turn, is anticipated to lead to a nine percent decrease in imports (375,000 MT).

USDA GAIN: Livestock and Products

Cattle and Beef

FAS/Moscow forecasts 2015 year-end cattle inventories to decrease (to 18.3 million head) as slaughter is expected to continue to increase due, in part, to Russia’s restrictions on beef imports from several countries, and as Russian dairies continue to slaughter less productive cattle. Because 2015 slaughter rates are estimated to increase by nearly one percent over the course of the year, FAS/Moscow forecasts a corresponding increase in domestic beef production in 2015 (up less than one percent to 1.4 MMT).

FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia’s imports of cattle to decrease by approximately 10 percent in 2014 (to 100,000 head). Although livestock importers continue to remain interested in improving the quality of their genetics, many existing Russian livestock importers are still carrying debts from previous purchases.

New importers supported by federal assistance, however, should help to bolster imports this year and next. 2015 beef imports are forecast flat when compared to significantly reduced 2014 import levels (by nearly 20 percent to 825,000 MT) as Russia has banned beef imports from several traditional foreign suppliers. In addition, 2015 beef consumption is expected to remain relatively flat (15.6 kg per capita, up from 15.5) due to a small increase in anticipated domestic production.

Swine and Pork

FAS/Moscow forecasts 2015 year-end swine inventories to grow by nearly two percent (to 19.3 million head) and domestic pork production to increase by nearly 6.5 percent (to 2.82 MMT) due to the increased availability of affordable feed, continued investment in the domestic pork industry, and ongoing production support measures. Increasing domestic pork meat production is expected to lead to consumption increases in 2015 (i.e., to 22.4 kilograms per capita from 21.5 kilograms per capita in 2014).

FAS/Moscow forecasts the cessation of swine imports in 2015 as a result of increased domestic production and continuing live swine import restrictions instituted by the Russian Veterinary Service because of the detection of African Swine Fever in Europe and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus in North America and elsewhere. Overall 2015 pork meat imports are also forecast to decrease (by approximately nine percent to 375,000MT) as a result of anticipated growth in domestic production and import restrictions placed on several traditional foreign suppliers.



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