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USDA International Meat Review


11 June 2014

USDA International Meat Review - 5 June 2014USDA International Meat Review - 5 June 2014


USDA International Meat Review

Trade Highlights

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently released April 2014 red meat export and import numbers for the U.S. According to the data, U.S. exports of beef and veal cuts and beef variety meats during April equaled 99,297 MT. This was 6.3 percent higher than the previous month and was 14.9 percent higher than April 2013. Specifically, fresh, chilled beef exports totaled 30,489 MT, which was up 8.4 percent over the previous month and was up 1.9 percent over April 2013. Frozen beef exports totaled 34,261 MT, which was up a little over the previous month and was up 29.5 percent over April 2013. During April, the U.S. exported 30,092 MT of beef variety meats. This was 11.0 percent more than the previous month and was 10.8 percent more than April 2013. Total year-to-date beef variety meat exports equaled 111,665 MT, 11.1 percent above a year ago. During April, the U.S. exported 18,668 MT of beef to Mexico, which was 4.2 percent lower than March. Year-to-date beef exports to Mexico were 33.5 percent greater than a year ago, amounting to 75,800 MT. Mexico was the largest beef export market for the U.S. with 20.1 percent of the total. Beef exports to Japan during April rose 23.8 percent over the previous month to 20,614 MT. Total year-to-date beef exports to Japan equaled 67,295 MT, 12.2 percent higher than a year ago. During April, the U.S. exported 13,190 MT of beef to Egypt. This was up 20.4 percent over March. Year-to-date beef exports to Egypt totaled 47,211 MT, 1.2 percent less than last year. Overall, U.S. total year-to-date beef and veal and beef variety meat exports equaled 376,380 MT, which was 9.7 percent above the same period a year ago.

During April, the U.S. exported 189,658 MT of pork cuts and pork variety meats. Although this was down 7.9 percent from the previous month, it was up 11.3 percent over April 2013. More specifically, fresh, chilled pork exports equaled 60,311 MT, which was 2.1 percent higher than the previous month and was 9.9 percent higher than April 2013. Frozen pork exports equaled 71,176 MT, which was 17.5 percent lower than the previous month but was 8.8 percent higher than April 2013. U.S. pork variety meat exports during April fell 5.4 percent from the previous month to 41,758 MT. However, this was up 14.6 percent over April 2013. Year-to-date pork variety meat exports totaled 162,183 MT, 10.2 percent above last year. Pork exports to Mexico during April fell 1.5 percent from March to 52,435 MT. Total year-to-date pork exports to Mexico equaled 217,105 MT, which was 16.9 percent higher than last year. Mexico was the leading U.S. pork export market with 28.5 percent of the total. During April, the U.S. exported 48,497 MT of pork to Japan. This was up 7.0 percent over the previous month. Year-to-date pork exports to Japan were 17.7 percent more than last year, amounting to 168,551 MT. Total year-to-date pork exports to China equaled 110,047 MT, 8.2 percent higher than a year ago. Overall, U.S. total year-to-date exports of pork cuts and pork variety meats equaled 762,908 MT, 10.8 percent below the corresponding period a year ago. To obtain further U.S. trade data, go to the FAS website http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations recently issued its bi-annual Food Outlook report. According to the FAO, during 2014 world meat production is forecast to increase 1.1 percent over 2013 to 311.8 MMT. International prices have remained at historically high levels since the beginning of 2011and there is no sign of an overall decrease. Falling feed prices have led to some price decrease for pork, while prices of beef and lamb have remained firm, limiting exports. World beef production is predicted to total 68.0 MMT, which is a little higher than 2013. In South America, cattle availabilities and slaughter have been rising, particularly in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil, the second largest producer after the U.S., is expected to account for most of the area’s growth as the cattle herd is in expansion due to improved productivity and genetics. Additionally, higher prices on the export market have encouraged the use of feed to maintain cattle weights during the dry season. In Argentina, government export restrictions have increasingly fixated the industry on internal demand, which absorbs 93.0 percent of production. Strong growth is expected from Paraguay and Uruguay. Beef production in India, the fifth largest beef producer, is expected to continue to expand its industry. In the U.S., the world’s largest beef producer, extensive drought conditions have caused a decline in calf production, which has led to herd reduction. This is forecast to lead to a decline in beef production of nearly 4.5 percent to 11.0 MMT. In Australia, beef production is expected to decline as drought persists in some parts of the country. Beef production in New Zealand is also expected to contract as the country recovers from the effects of drought and herd rebuilding. During 2014, world pork production is forecast to total a record 115.5 MMT, 1.1 percent more than 2013 due partially to lower feed costs. China’s pork production is expected to increase by 1.6 percent to 55.7 MMT due to strong consumer demand and government support policies. China accounts for 48.0 percent of the world’s pork production. Brazil, the world’s fourth largest pork producing country, is forecast to see a record pork production of 3.6 MMT. The increase is because of improved prices and reduced feed costs. Pork production in the EU, the second largest pork producer, is pegged to grow slightly to 22.8 MMT due to limitations caused by animal welfare regulations in the housing of sows. In the U.S., the third largest pork producer, pork production is expected to be limited by the spread of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED). World sheep and goat meat production during 2014 is predicted to increase slightly over 2013 to 14.0 MMT. Production will be limited by a sharp decrease in production in Oceania due to drought imposed herd reduction. During 2014, world meat trade is expected to increase 1.4 percent over 2013 to 31.3 MMT. This reflects production limitations in some of the main exporting countries. World beef trade is forecast at 9.4 MMT, 3.5 percent greater than 2013. Consumer demand and a shortage of domestic supplies in some countries will lead to an expansion in trade. China is expected to see a large increase, approximately 18.0 percent over a year ago, in beef imports, making it the largest beef importing country. Imports by Japan and South Korea are also forecast to increase. Imports by the U.S., the second largest beef importing country, are expected to increase by 3.3 percent to compensate for a decline in domestic production. Russia’s beef imports are forecast to remain nearly unchanged as high international prices will limit demand. Beef exports out of Brazil and India are forecast to expand by nearly 8.0 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. Conversely, drought and herd rebuilding are expected to limit exports from Australia and New Zealand, which account for 20.0 percent of the world’s trade. Little change is expected for beef exports from Canada and the U.S. World pork trade during 2014 is expected to fall 2.1 percent from 2013 to 7.2 MMT due to supply constraints. Pork exports from the U.S. are expected to fall by 2.8 percent, partly as the result of PED. The EU is facing major challenges such as Russia banning EU pork imports and a couple cases of African Swine Fever (ASF). Canada will not be able to gain opportunities in additional markets as it is unlikely production will grow. Brazil and China are expected to increase pork exports. Imports by Asian countries, which account for nearly half of all trade, are expected to fall by 3.3 percent. China, the leading import market, is on track to reduce its imports by as much as 7.5 percent. Pork imports by Japan and South Korea are predicted to remain nearly unchanged from last year. Russia is expected to reduce its imports again. Imports by Canada and Mexico may also decline due to reduced supplies in the U.S. During 2014, sheep and goat meat trade is forecast to fall 3.7 percent from 2013 to 1.0 MMT. Australia and New Zealand account for nearly 85.0 percent of the exports. Because of herd rebuilding following exceptionally high drought induced slaughter in 2013, exports from New Zealand are expected to decline. There will also be a decline in exports from Australia due to drought conditions. Per capita meat consumption during 2014 is forecast at 42.9 KG, unchanged from 2013. The complete food outlook report can be found on the FAO website at http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/fo/index.htm.

Oceania

Recently, Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) issued Australia’s red meat export numbers for May 2014. According to the data, Australia’s beef and veal exports during May rose 10.9 percent over April and rose 4.8 percent over May 2013 to a record 108,126 MT. Specifically, frozen beef exports equaled 81,662 MT, which accounted for 75.5 percent of the total. Fresh, chilled beef exports equaled 26,464 MT. Australia’s beef exports to the U.S. during May totaled 31,054 MT, which was 24.3 percent higher than the previous month and was 57.8 percent higher than May 2013. This was the largest single month volume since March 2009. Total year-to-date beef exports to the U.S. equaled 123,608 MT, 46.3 percent greater than last year. The U.S. was Australia’s primary beef export market with 25.7 percent of the total. During May, Australia exported 26,245 MT of beef to Japan, which was up 26.5 percent over the previous month but was down 13.6 percent from May 2013. Total year-to-date beef exports to Japan were 7.4 percent below a year ago, amounting to 107,249 MT. During May, beef exports to South Korea rose 4.0 percent over the previous month to 12,547 MT. Also, this was 1.0 percent higher than May 2013. Year-to-date beef exports to South Korea totaled 59,958 MT, 18.9 percent greater than a year ago. Total year-to-date beef exports to China were 15.2 percent more than last year, amounting to 59,623 MT. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date beef and veal exports equaled 481,441 MT, which was 16.9 percent above the same period a year ago.

During May, Australia’s lamb exports equaled 20,528 MT. This was up 15.6 percent over the previous month and was up 2.8 percent over May 2013. Australia’s lamb exports to the Middle East during May rose 3.7 percent over April to 5,241 MT. However, this was 12.0 percent lower than May 2013. Year-to-date lamb exports to the Middle East totaled 24,359 MT, 1.0 percent lower than a year ago. The Middle East was Australia’s primary lamb export market with 26.0 percent of the total. Lamb exports to the U.S. during May equaled 3,660 MT. This was 18.2 percent higher than the previous month and was 11.8 percent higher than May 2013. Total year-to-date lamb exports to the U.S. were up 14.5 percent over last year, amounting to 18,627 MT. During May, lamb exports to China totaled 3,854 MT. This was 24.4 percent more than the previous month and was 8.8 percent more than a year ago. Year-to-date lamb exports to China were 9.4 percent greater than a year ago, amounting to 16,091 MT. Overall, Australia’s total yearto- date lamb exports equaled 93,531 MT, 12.0 percent above the corresponding period a year ago. In the meantime, Australia’s mutton exports during May fell 12.6 percent from April and fell 22.9 percent from May 2013 to 13,059 MT. During May, Australia exported 3,711 MT of mutton to the Middle East, which was down 27.3 percent from the previous month and was down 13.9 percent from May 2013. Year-to-date mutton exports to the Middle East totaled 24,359 MT, which was 9.4 percent more than last year. The Middle East was Australia’s main mutton export market with 29.9 percent of the total. Australia’s mutton exports to China during May totaled 3,309 MT. Although this was 1.4 percent higher than the previous month, it was 42.2 percent lower than May 2013. Total year-to-date mutton exports to China were 5.2 percent above a year ago, reaching 21,270 MT. During May, Australia exported 745 MT of mutton to the U.S. This was down 27.0 percent from the previous month but was up 7.0 percent over May 2013. Year-to-date mutton exports to the U.S. totaled 6,219 MT, 33.1 percent more than last year. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date mutton exports equaled 81,420 MT, 14.3 percent above the same period a year ago. To obtain further data on Australia’s red meat exports, go to the DAFF website at http://www.daff.gov.au/.

North America

On May 22, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its monthly Cold Storage report. According to the report, as of April 30, 2014, beef in U.S. cold storage facilities totaled 402.3 million pounds, which was 21.1 percent less than last year and was 10.6 percent less than the five year average. Specifically, boneless beef in cold storage was down 21.7 percent from a year ago, amounting to 360.4 million pounds. The volume of beef cuts in cold storage was 16.3 percent lower than a year ago, totaling 41.9 million pounds. Meanwhile, pork in cold storage at the end of April equaled 584.1 million pounds. This was down 16.7 percent from last year and was down 2.9 percent from the five year average. The volume of hams in storage equaled 81.8 million pounds. This was 35.6 percent less than a year ago. Pork bellies in cold storage totaled 82.7 million pounds, which was 46.8 percent higher than last year. The volume of loins in storage was 2.1 percent more than last year, amounting to 47.1 million pounds. Pork ribs in cold storage totaled 116.7 million pounds, 3.2 percent lower than a year ago. Pork butts in cold storage equaled 19.8 million pounds, which was 16.9 percent less than last year. The volume of trimmings in cold storage decreased 36.5 percent from last year to 42.0 million pounds. Pork variety meats in storage equaled 37.7 million pounds, 14.6 percent more than a year ago. Veal in U.S. cold storage facilities totaled 3.4 million pounds, 36.7 percent less than a year ago. Lamb and mutton in storage totaled 26.9 million pounds, which was up 25.4 percent over last year. To obtain the complete report, visit the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

On May 29, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and USDA FAS released the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. According to the report, during the fiscal year (FY) 2014, U.S. exports of agricultural products are estimated to value a record $149.5 billion. This is up from the prior forecast of $142.6 billion and is up 6.1 percent over 2013. Exports of livestock products during 2014 are expected to total $19.2 billion, up from the previous forecast of $19.0 billion. Beef and veal exports during 2014 are forecast at 800,000 MT, unchanged from the prior estimate. The value of beef and veal exports is predicted to total $5.6 billion, which is higher than the previous forecast of $5.3 billion due to higher prices and slightly higher volumes. During 2014, U.S. pork exports are estimated at 1.7 MMT, unchanged from the February estimate. The value of pork exports is forecast at $5.4 billion, unchanged from the prior forecast. Beef and pork variety meat exports during 2014 are expected to total 700,000 MT, the same as the previous estimate. The value of variety meat exports is forecast at $1.5 billion, up from the previous forecast of $1.4 billion. In the meantime, during FY 2014, U.S. agricultural imports are estimated to value a record $110.5 billion, which is up from the prior forecast of $110.0 billion. Also, this is 6.5 percent greater than 2013. During 2014, the value of livestock and meat imports is forecast at $11.1 billion, up from the prior estimate of $11.0 billion. Imports of cattle and calves during 2014 are predicted to total 2.0 million head, unchanged from the previous estimate. The value of those imports is placed at $1.9 billion. Lower volumes are expected to more than offset higher prices. Despite strong demand from U.S. producers, cattle supplies in Canada and Mexico are limited. Imports of live hogs are expected to total 4.6 million head, down from the previous forecast of 4.8 million head. The value of live hog imports during 2014 is forecast at $400 million, which is higher than the prior estimate of $300 million. Beef and veal imports are estimated to total 800,000 MT, unchanged from the prior estimate. The value is forecast at $4.1 billion, up from the previous estimate of $4.0 billion. During 2014, pork imports are forecast at 400,000 MT, unchanged from the February projection. The value is forecast at $1.6 billion, which is higher than the prior forecast of $1.5 billion. The entire report, which includes a world economic outlook and regional information, is available on the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov/.

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