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USDA International Meat Review


20 December 2013

USDA International Meat Review - 19 December 2013USDA International Meat Review - 19 December 2013


USDA International Meat Review

Trade Highlights

Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations released it bi-annual Food Outlook report. According to the report, world meat production is expected to increase 1.4 percent in 2013. Despite reduced feed costs, prices are expected to remain high. World meat production during 2013 is forecast at 308.3 MMT, 1.4 percent more than 2012. Growth will be concentrated in developing countries. World beef production is expected to total 67.5 MMT, a little higher than 2012. In South America, cattle slaughter and supplies have been rising, particularly in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, following two years of rebuilding. In India, additional growth is expected as nearly half of all production goes to export. The U.S., the world’s largest beef producer is projected to see a 4.0 percent decline due to decreasing slaughter. Canada is expected to see a 7.0 percent decline. On the other hand, Australia’s beef production is expected to increase due to falling feed prices. World pork production during 2013 is forecast at a record 114.6 MMT, which is 1.7 percent higher than 2012, following several years of expansion. Strong consumer demand and government support policies are expected to result in China’s production reaching 54.8 MMT, which is nearly half the world’s production. Brazil is set to increase production due to improved prices. Steady growth is also anticipated in Mexico. For the second year, pork production in the EU is expected to see depressed production due to compliance with animal welfare requirements. In the U.S., lower feed costs and increase slaughter are expected to lead to a little growth. In Canada, a small decrease in production is expected. During 2013, world sheep and goat meat production is expected to total 13.7 MMT, 1.5 percent more than 2012. Sheep and goat meat production continues to show modest growth, following a period of stagnation. The largest producers are China and India. The main growth is expected to come from Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, sheep meat production began to increase in 2011 and is projected to continue. World meat trade during 2013 is forecast to reach 30.1 MMT, 1.1 percent more than 2012. This is a reduction in growth compared to 2012 and well below the rates seen in 2010 and 2011. The slowdown is due to improved supplies in many importing countries and falling production in some of the main exporting countries. World beef trade is predicted to total 8.4 MMT, 4.9 percent higher than 2012, despite prices at the highest levels ever. Consumer demand, rising incomes and a shortage of domestic supplies have contributed to the expansion in trade. Supplies in 2013 have been sourced mainly in Australia, followed by Uruguay, New Zealand, Canada and Argentina. Imports by Japan, Vietnam and Malaysia could increase moderately; while purchases by South Korea are anticipated to remain weak because of ample domestic supplies. Exports to Russia and the U.S., the two largest importers, are forecast to decrease as the result of high prices. Growth in exports is forecast for both Brazil and Australia in response to generally strong demand. Shipments are also expected to increase out of India and the U.S. Conversely, shipments by Canada and Mexico are forecast to decrease significantly. World pork trade during 2013 is forecast to decrease 2.1 percent from 2012 to 7.4 MMT. The decline is due to reduced production in some of the main exporting countries and a decrease in demand by several major importing countries. South Korea is forecast to see a substantial decline for the second consecutive year due to larger domestic stocks and lower domestic prices following a strong recovery of production after a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in 2011. Japan, the largest importer, is expected to cut imports by nearly 4.0 percent due to expanding domestic production and competition from poultry and beef. Imports by China are expected to increase 6.0 percent as domestic production has been unable to keep up with demand. Mexico and the U.S. are expected to see a decline in imports. As for exports, limited supplies in the EU, the U.S., Canada and Brazil are expected to result in a decline. During 2013, world sheep and goat meat trade is expected to total 1.0 MMT, 16.3 percent greater than 2012. Most of the increase is expected to come from China, where imports have risen significantly the past three years. Most of the world trade is supplied by Australia and New Zealand. Per capita meat consumption during 2013 is forecast at 43.1 KG, up from 43.0 KG in 2012. The complete report can be found on the FAO website at http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/fo/index.htm.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently published U.S. red meat export and import data for October 2013. According to the numbers, U.S. exports of beef and veal cuts and beef variety meats during October rose 13.5 percent over September to 107,475 MT. Also, this was 6.1 percent higher than October 2012. More specifically, fresh, chilled beef exports equaled 34,730 MT, which was up 6.3 percent over the previous month and was up 7.1 percent over October 2012. Frozen beef exports equaled 38,230 MT, which was up 11.8 percent over the previous month and was up 1.9 percent over October 2012. U.S. beef variety meat exports during October rose 22.3 percent over the previous month and 4.4 percent over October 2012 to 29,286 MT. Total year-todate beef variety meat exports were 3.5 percent less than last year, amounting to 260,260 MT. Beef exports to Japan during October rose 5.6 percent over the previous month to 18,005 MT. Year-to-date beef exports to Japan equaled 201,949 MT, 50.7 percent greater than last year. Japan was the largest beef export market for the U.S. with 20.8 percent of the total. U.S. beef exports to Mexico during October equaled 21,983 MT, which was 15.8 percent more than the previous month. Year-to-date beef exports to Mexico totaled 171,870 MT, which was 3.5 percent more than the previous month. During October, the U.S. exported 14,742 MT of beef to Canada. This was 6.2 percent higher than the previous month. Total year-to-date beef exports to Canada were up 2.8 percent over a year ago, amounting to 148,519 MT. Overall, U.S. total year-to-date beef and veal and beef variety meat exports equaled 969,202 MT, which was 2.0 percent more than the corresponding period a year ago.

During October, U.S. exports of pork cuts and pork variety meats totaled 183,404 MT. This was 11.9 percent more than the previous month but was 14.3 percent less than October 2012. More specifically, exports of fresh, chilled pork equaled 63,146 MT, which was up 14.2 percent over the previous month but was down 6.6 percent from October 2012. Exports of frozen pork equaled 65,872 MT, which was up 8.8 percent over the previous month but was down 24.1 percent from October 2012. During October, U.S. pork variety meat exports totaled 38,279 MT, which was 20.0 percent higher than September but was 15.1 percent lower than October 2012. Total year-to-date pork variety meat exports were 6.7 percent higher than last year, amounting to 359,029 MT. U.S. pork exports to Mexico during October rose 9.4 percent over the previous month to 53,869 MT. Year-todate pork exports to Mexico totaled 489,894 MT, a little more than a year ago. Mexico was the leading U.S. pork export market with 28.4 percent of the total. During October, the U.S. exported 38,269 MT of pork to Japan. This was 16.9 percent greater than the previous month. Total year-to-date pork exports to Japan were 8.6 percent less than a year ago, amounting to 355,877 MT. Pork exports to China during October equaled 26,479 MT, which was down 3.1 percent from the previous month. Year-to-date pork exports to China totaled 268,459 MT, 2.4 percent lower than last year. Overall, U.S. total year-to-date exports of pork cuts and pork variety meats equaled 1,726,138 MT, 6.4 percent less than the same period a year ago.

During October, U.S. beef and veal imports equaled 60,963 MT. This was 16.8 percent higher than September and was 28.2 percent higher than October 2012. More specifically, imports of fresh, chilled beef totaled 26,929 MT, which was up 10.5 percent over the previous month and was up 25.9 percent over October 2012. Imports of frozen beef totaled 30,355 MT, which was up 21.9 percent over the previous month and was up 26.5 percent over October 2012. During October, U.S. beef imports from Australia rose 20.5 percent over the previous month to 19,873 MT. Year-to-date beef imports from Australia totaled 170,214 MT, 6.9 percent below a year ago. Australia was the main provider of beef to the U.S. with 26.5 percent of the total imports. Beef imports from New Zealand during October equaled 8,220 MT, which was 37.5 percent higher than the previous month. Total year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand were 8.4 percent more than last year, amounting to 159,266 MT. During October, the U.S. imported 17,410 MT of beef from Canada. This was up 13.8 percent over the previous month. Year-to-date beef imports from Canada equaled 152,340 MT, which was 6.9 percent less than last year. Overall, U.S. total year-to-date beef and veal imports equaled 641,296 MT, which was a little higher than the corresponding period a year ago.

U.S. pork imports during October equaled 32,954 MT, which was up a little over the previous month and was up 14.8 percent over October 2012. During October, fresh, chilled pork imports totaled 21,686 MT, which was slightly less than the previous month but was 21.6 percent more than October 2012. Frozen pork imports totaled 7,177 MT, which was slightly less than the previous month but was 5.7 percent more than October 2012. During October, the U.S. imported 26,543 MT of pork from Canada, which was 3.5 percent lower than the previous month. Total year-to-date pork imports from Canada were 11.4 percent higher than last year, amounting to 254,016 MT. Canada was the largest supplier of pork to the U.S. with 81.9 percent of the total. Pork imports from Denmark during October rose 25.4 percent over the previous month to 2,456 MT. Year-to-date pork imports from Denmark totaled 22,564 MT, 16.2 percent less than a year ago. Overall, U.S. total year-to-date pork imports equaled 310,208 MT, which was 8.6 percent higher than the same period a year ago. Additional U.S. trade data can be found on the FAS website http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/.

North America

Recently, CanFax released Canada’s current cattle on feed numbers of terminal feedlots with 1,000 or more head in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. According to the statistics, cattle on feed on December 1, 2013 in Canada equaled 1,020,307 head. This was 5.9 percent higher than one year ago and was 1.1 percent higher than the five year average. During November, 256,648 head of cattle were placed on feed, which was 24.8 percent less than one year ago and was 12.9 percent less than the five year average. Steers placed on feed numbered 175,881 head, which accounted for 58.5 percent of the total placements. Heifers placed on feed totaled 124,772 head. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds equaled 84,097 head, which was a little more than a year ago. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds totaled 70,606 head, 33.1 percent less than last year. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds were down 38.1 percent from a year ago, amounting to 31,819 head. Finally, feeder cattle placements weighing more than 800 pounds totaled 70,126 head, which was 30.5 percent lower than last year. In the meantime, Canada’s fed cattle marketings during November fell 18.2 percent from one year ago to 112,998 head. Also, this was 17.6 percent lower than the five year average. To obtain the report, visit the CanFax website at http://www.canfax.ca/.

Pacific Rim

Recently, Japan’s Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC) published October 2012 beef and pork import data for Japan. According to the statistics, Japan’s beef imports during October rose 29.8 percent over the previous month to 45,321 MT. However, this was down 3.7 percent from October 2012. Specifically, imports of frozen beef totaled 27,971 MT, which was up 41.6 percent over the previous month but was down 3.8 percent from October 2012. Likewise, imports of fresh, chilled beef were 14.3 percent higher than the previous month but were 3.7 percent lower than October 2012, totaling 17,287 MT. Japan’s beef imports from Australia during October equaled 23,920 MT. Although this was 41.6 percent more than the previous month, it was 15.9 percent less than October 2012. Total year-to-date beef imports from Australia equaled 236,752 MT, which was 11.8 percent below a year ago. Australia was the primary beef import market for Japan with 53.0 percent of the total. During October, Japan imported 17,050 MT of beef from the U.S, which was up 11.8 percent over September and was up 41.3 percent over October 2012. Year-to-date beef imports from the U.S. were 36.9 percent greater than last year, amounting to 155,630 MT. Beef imports from New Zealand during October rose 67.8 percent over the previous month to 1,619 MT. However, this was 13.0 percent less than October 2012. Year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand equaled 25,967 MT, 6.7 percent lower than last year. Overall, Japan’s total year-to-date beef imports equaled 446,826 MT, which was 2.2 percent above the same period a year ago. During September, Japan’s beef marketings equaled 65,984 MT, which was 7.2 percent lower than the previous month and was a little lower than a year ago. Imported beef marketings were down 2.1 percent from a year ago, amounting to 38,154 MT. Domestic beef marketings totaled 27,831 MT, 2.7 percent more than last year. Japan’s beef stocks at the end of September equaled 130,284 MT, which was down 2.6 percent from the previous month but was up 18.2 percent over a year ago. Imported beef stocks totaled 117,004 MT, which was 21.4 percent higher than a year ago. Stocks of domestic beef were down 3.8 percent from last year, totaling 13,280 MT.

During October, Japan’s pork imports rose 12.3 percent over September to 66,740 MT. However, this was down 9.3 percent from October 2012. This was the highest single month volume since October 2012. More specifically, imports of frozen pork equaled 37,640 MT, which was up 5.3 percent over the previous month but was down 26.2 percent from October 2012. Imports of fresh, chilled pork equaled 29,099 MT, which was up 22.8 percent over the previous month and was up 28.8 percent over October 2012. During October, Japan imported 25,256 MT of pork from the U.S. This was 20.9 percent more than the previous month but was 12.1 percent less than October 2012. Total year-to-date pork imports from the U.S. were 11.8 percent below a year ago, amounting to 234,767 MT. The U.S. was the largest source for Japan’s pork imports with 38.3 percent of the total. Pork imports from Canada during October totaled 14,297 MT, which was up 25.7 percent over the previous month but was down 14.2 percent from October 2012. Total year-to-date pork imports from Canada equaled 117,092 MT, 19.1 percent less than a year ago. During October, pork imports from Denmark fell slightly from the previous month to 10,430 MT. However, this was 4.5 percent more than October 2012. Year-to-date pork imports from Denmark totaled 94,263 MT, 7.0 percent less than last year. Overall, Japan’s total year-to-date pork imports equaled 631,177 MT, 6.4 percent lower than the corresponding period a year ago. During September, Japan’s pork marketings totaled 136,523 MT. This was a little higher than the previous month and was 7.3 percent higher than a year ago. Marketings of imported pork were up 3.2 percent over last year, amounting to 63,259 MT. Domestic pork marketings totaled 73,264 MT, which was 11.1 percent higher than a year ago. At the end of September, Japan’s pork stocks totaled 162,662 MT. This was 3.0 percent lower than the previous month and was 9.3 percent lower than a year ago. Imported pork stocks equaled 141,652 MT, 9.8 percent less than a year ago. Stocks of domestic pork were down 5.8 percent from last year, amounting to 21,011 MT. Additional data is available on the ALIC website at http://lin.alic.go.jp/alic/statis/dome/data2/e_nstatis.htm.

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