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USDA International Egg and Poultry

17 July 2013

USDA International Egg and Poultry: FAO Food Outlook - Poultry MeatUSDA International Egg and Poultry: FAO Food Outlook - Poultry Meat

In the June 2013 issue of FAO’s Food Outlook, world poultry production is expected to increase 1.8% to 106 million tons in 2013. Competitive pricing of poultry relative to other meats will support production, although feed costs will continue to limit growth.
USDA International Egg and Poultry

China is currently the world’s second largest poultry producer but is on trend to replace the United States in the next few years. Estimating China’s production is difficult due to culling and restrictions on the retail sale of live poultry following an outbreak of H7N9 in March, 2013. Consumer confidence in poultry meat has diminished and sales are reported to have suffered. Consequently, China’s poultry output has been provisionally set as unchanged from 2012, in contrast with the 2.6% increase originally projected. An outbreak of the H7N3 stain in Mexico in April 2013 is also causing concern.

In the U.S. a 1.6% increase in output is anticipated as production has recovered from the 2012 slump, aided by improved prices and a reduction in feed costs. Production growth is anticipated for the EU, Brazil and the Russian Federation, which collectively account for 26% of world production.

Continued rapid expansion is forecast for India, where output may rise by 8%. Among the top 20 producing countries, apart from the uncertainty surrounding China, only Japan is expected to register a fall in output, which could decline by 0.7% in response to oversupply and associated reduced prices stemming from a sharp increase in production in 2012 and a subsequent build-up of stocks.

Poultry is the most traded category of meat and represents almost 45% of world commerce. Although the volume of sales doubled over the past decade, growth has stalled since 2010. This slowdown is expected to continue in 2013, when trade is forecast to increase by 1.5% to 13.3 million tons.

Purchases by Asia, the main importing group, are anticipated to increase by 0.6%, due to growth in purchases by Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan, among others. However, abundant supplies in Japan and the Republic of Korea, and concerns over avian influenza that have led to decreased consumption in China, are expected to curb imports.

Imports for Africa as a whole are expected to increase by 6%. Among the main importing countries, South Africa, Angola, Benin, Ghana and Egypt are all anticipated to purchase more, as income growth strengthens demand. In Egypt, culling associated with avian influenza, combined with FMD-induced high beef prices, will provide an additional stimulus to imports.

Deliveries to the Russian Federation in 2013 are expected to increase moderately, in part due to the recent customs agreement with Ukraine and Belarus. Imports by the Federation remain at less than half what they were in the mid-2000s, because of a considerable increase in domestic production. Rising poultry production within the European Union could lead to reduced purchases in 2013, while imports by Mexico and Canada are anticipated to change little, amid stable domestic demand.

Brazil, the U.S. and the EU together account for almost three quarters of global trade; they have had little expansion in sales in recent years. Most of the growth has come from second-tier exporters, including Thailand, China, Argentina, Turkey, Chile, the Ukraine and Belarus. This pattern is expected to be maintained in 2013 with the exception of China. Shipments from Thailand to the EU are forecast to rise vigorously, supported by competitive pricing and EU’s lifting of an eight-year AI-induced ban on fresh and chilled products. Exports from Turkey are forecast to grow by over 15% due to regional demand, especially from Iraq.

Source: FAO Food Outlook Biannual Report on Global Food Markets, June 2013

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