AHDB Pig Market Weekly
16 March 2012
AHDB UK Market Survey - 16 March 2012
The Scottish Government reported that livestock
numbers in Scotland were lower year on year.
English sheep producers increase numbers
In the December survey published by Defra the English sheep flock recorded a four per cent increase on the year. The number of breeding females increased by 160,000 head, reflecting optimism within the sheep industry, largely attributable to increased farmgate prices. In addition, there was a five per cent increase in the number of other sheep and lambs. The majority of animals in this category will be lambs under one year of age. This reflects the very good seasonal conditions from lambing onwards last year and the slight flock growth in 2010.
The pig herd in England declined almost one per cent, as a result of the decline in the number of fattening pigs. There was however a continued stabilisation in the breeding herd with numbers totalling 415,000 head for the third year in a row. This was driven by an 11 per cent increase in the number of gilts intended for first time breeding as the number of animals actually in pig was two per cent lower on the year.
The total number of cattle and calves in England fell almost three per cent. Male cattle numbers declined four per cent which further supports expectations that beef supplies will be tight in 2012, as there will be fewer male cattle available for finishing. Reflecting the continued concerns over profitability, in both the beef and dairy sectors, and the high cull cow values encouraging culling, breeding cow numbers were also lower on the year. There were 15,000 fewer suckler cows in the herd and 42,000 fewer dairy cows.
Welsh sheep numbers increase
The Welsh Government reported that the number of
sheep on Welsh holdings was six and a half per cent
higher year on year. This was the largest percentage
increase recorded in the UK. The female breeding
flock increased five per cent, as a result of a
significant rise in the number of females tupped for
the first time.
A 10 per cent increase in the number of ewe lambs
under one year old, retained for future breeding,
indicated that this trend is likely to continue. The
number of other lambs in the flock under one year old
increased 14 per cent to 930,000 head. These
increased numbers can be attributed to growth in the
Welsh flock in 2010 and the better than average
seasonal conditions experienced for much of 2011.
Cattle numbers in Wales declined by almost three per
cent. Both the dairy and beef herds contracted.
There were increased numbers of younger dairy
females in the system indicating some of these losses
may be replaced. However, with the reduced
number of younger beef bred female animals there is
little expectation that the beef herd will recover in the
short term. The number of male cattle aged 1-2 years old was lower, indicating a reduction in the
availability of cattle for finishing in 2012.
However, calf numbers were marginally higher
than year earlier levels.
The small number of pigs in Wales fell by four per cent to 25,600 head. The survey reported 3,200 breeding pigs which is four per cent fewer than in December 2010.
Scottish livestock numbers fall
The Scottish Government reported that livestock
numbers in Scotland were lower year on year.
The decline in cattle numbers was broadly in line
with the UK trend; however the fall in pig numbers
in Scotland was considerably higher than in other
regions. Scotland was the only region of the UK to
record a decline in sheep numbers as high culling
rates in 2011 eroded breeding numbers.
The total number of cattle on Scottish holdings fell
by almost two per cent or 32,000 head. Both beef
and dairy cow numbers were lower as culling rates
increased with producers taking advantage of the
increased cull cow values. The number of heifers
in calf for the first time fell six per cent indicating
that the fall in cow numbers is indicative of a
longer term decline. The number of cattle aged 1-
2 years was 6,000 head lower at 386,000 head;
further indicating tight beef supplies in 2012.
However the number of cattle between six months
and one year old increased one per cent,
indicating that there may be an increase in supply
in the future.
The sheep flock in Scotland fell three per cent to
4.47 million head. There were 28,000 fewer
breeding ewes in the flock, a decline of one per
cent on the year. The number of tupped shearlings
was back four per cent and the number of ewe
lambs intended for future breeding declined two
per cent. In contrast, there was an eight per cent
increase in the number of ewe lambs put to the
ram, and the number of shearling ewes that
weren’t tupped increased by almost a quarter. The
number of other sheep and lambs, mainly lambs
destined for slaughter, were six per cent lower.
Pig numbers in Scotland declined 10 per cent to
368,000 head. This was driven by a 14 per cent
decline in the female breeding herd which is the
biggest indicator yet that some producers may
have left the industry in the face increased input
costs and negative margins. The number of
fattening pigs was 10 per cent lower at 329,000
head.
Cow numbers increase in Northern Ireland
The results of the DARD December agricultural survey show that Northern Ireland was the only region in the
UK to record an increase in the number of cows in the cattle herd. This was despite there being a marginal fall
in total cattle and calf numbers. The number of dairy cows was one per cent higher at 281,000 head while beef
cow numbers were three per cent higher at 269,000 head. There were also increased numbers of heifers in calf
for the first time. The number of other cattle over two years old was stable on the year, while the number of
animals aged between one and two years of age was seven per cent lower. However, the number of calves
below six months of age was three per cent higher, indicating increased registrations in response to the larger
breeding herd and better beef prices.
The total number of pigs in Northern Ireland increased two per cent to 437,000 head. Although this rise masks
a three per cent decline in the female breeding herd. A seven per cent decline in sow numbers, to 23,000 head,
was offset to some extent by an increase in the number of gilts in pig. The number of other pigs was two per
cent higher at 395,000 head.
Northern Irish sheep numbers increased five per cent on the year to total 1.3 million head. The number of
breeding females increased four per cent as ewe numbers were up four per cent and the number of tupped ewe
lambs increased seven per cent. The number of other lambs under one year old was 13 per cent higher.
Cattle market trends
Prices
In week ended 10 March, with continued tight
supply, the upward trend in cattle prices continued
and the prime cattle average price increased on the
week to 337.7p per kg. The price of R4L steers
edged closer towards the 350p per kg threshold, up
marginally to 346.3p per kg. R4L heifers were over
a penny dearer at 344.5p per kg while the average
price of R3 young bulls increased three pence on
the week to 332.8p per kg. The price of -04L cull
cows has strengthened almost 20 pence since the
turn of the year to reach 275.5p per kg.
In week ended 14 March the liveweight prime cattle
trade at GB auction markets eased on the week.
Steers averaged 188.8p per kg, down a penny while
heifers levelled at 192.2p per kg. The buoyant cow
trade continued, driven by firm demand for quality
cows from the export and domestic market. The
average price for cows at auction increased over a
penny on the week to 133.4p per kg.
Estimated slaughterings
AHDB estimated GB prime cattle slaughterings in week ended 10 March were at a similar level to the week earlier at 34,000 head. However, continuing the trend so far in 2012, this was four per cent lower than in the corresponding week last year. Cull cow throughputs were estimated to be 8,300 head in the latest week, 18 per cent lower year on year. In the year to date cow slaughterings are estimated to be down 15 per cent.
Consumption
According to the latest Kantar Worldpanel data in
the 12 week period ending 19 February 2012,
household purchases of fresh and frozen beef
declined seven per cent on the year to 73,700
tonnes. Expenditure increased four per cent to
£498 million, as increased retail prices offset the
lower volume that was purchased. The decline in
the volume of beef purchased as a result of price
promotions continued to be evident. Household
purchases of most beef cuts were lower than in the
corresponding 12 week period last year. The
increase in the average price of beef in recent
months has encouraged shoppers to switch to
cheaper roasting joint alternatives, and as a result,
sales of first quality roasting joints were down 21
per cent on the year.
However, in the four-week period, household
purchases of cheaper, more versatile cuts increased
on the year, sales of stewing beef and mince
increased 12 and 3 per cent respectively.
Sheep market trends
Prices
In week ended 10 March there was uplift in the GB
deadweight lamb trade, the SQQ increased to
440.7p per kg. There was a firm price increase for
R3L graded lambs, up almost three pence on the
week to average 445.8p per kg.
Liveweight lamb prices started to pick up in week
ended 14 March, possibly the start of the
seasonal uplift in the run up to the Easter trading
period. The GB Old Season Lamb SQQ
increased five pence to 207.1 per kg. With Easter
in early April this year, prices are expected
increase this month. However the tight global
supply situation, prevalent in 2011, appears to
have eased. Latest figures from New Zealand
indicate an 18 per cent increase in lamb
throughputs in January while in Australia, the
Australian Bureau of Statistics indicate a 10 per
cent increase in throughputs. These increased
supplies come as demand is somewhat limited, as
a result farmgate lamb prices in both these
countries have eased considerably recently.
There was some regional variations in price over the
week with the Scottish SQQ marginally higher at
203.8p per kg. In England prices surged ahead and
overtook Scotland as the highest value region in GB,
the SQQ recorded an increase of almost seven pence
to average 208.8p per kg. At 206.8p per kg the SQQ
in Wales was up five pence on the week.
Cull ewe values have followed the lamb trade by
increasing week on week. At £81 per head the
average price was approximately £3 per head higher
than last week.
Consumption
According to Kantar Worldpanel, in the latest 12
week period ending 19 February 2012, household
purchases of fresh and frozen lamb totalled 15,500
tonnes, 13 per cent lower than in the corresponding
period a year ago. The number of households that
bought lamb was lower as was the amount
purchased on each shopping trip. As a result of an
increase in the average retail price, expenditure in
the 12 week period declined to a lesser extent, by
just over two per cent, to £132 million.
The most significant decline in purchases in the 12
week period was for frying/grilling cuts and shoulder
roasting joints, down 18 and 20 per cent respectively
on the year. Processors continue to command a high
export price, which has meant reduced domestic
availability and less pressure on retailers to promote
their lamb offering. However, bucking the trend, in
the latest four week period leg roasting joints and
stewing cuts performed well as a result of increased
promotional activity by some retailers.
Pig market trends
Prices
The increase in the DAPP, which began in the
previous week, accelerated in week ended 10
March. The DAPP increased to 140.5p per kg, up
by almost a penny on the week. This came as
increasing pig prices in the EU made UK pig meat
more competitive. In line with the seasonal trend,
there was a small fall in the average carcase weight
of pigs in the DAPP sample to 79.4 kg. The average
probe measurement was unchanged on the week at
10.9mm. At the current level the DAPP is more
than five pence higher than in the corresponding
week last year.
Signs of improvement in finished pig prices have
begun to influence the weaner market. The average
price for 30kg weaners increased to £45.57 per
head for week ending 17 March, a rise of nearly one
pound compared with two weeks earlier. This is
the first significant price movement since the New
Year. The current price is nearly five pounds per
head higher than a year earlier and is at its highest
level since July 2011.
Tight supplies in the EU have also led to increases
in GB cull sow prices in recent weeks. The average
price in week ended 10 March was 119.04p per kg,
its highest level for nearly three years.
Consumption
According to Kantar Worldpanel in the 12 weeks to
19 February 2012, expenditure on fresh and frozen
pork increased by six per cent but the amount
purchased fell by three per cent. Reduced
promotional activity resulted in a 10 per cent
increase in the average price paid by consumers.
Reduced purchases were mainly driven by a
significant decline in sales of leg roasting joints,
down 31 per cent year on year. Fewer retail
promotions have acted to drive this decline. More
belly and loin roasting joints were purchased, up 18
and three per cent respectively.
Pork sales were poor in the week between
Christmas and New Year and this has driven the
decline in the latest 12-week figures. Since then,
the picture is more positive, with purchases up
nearly two per cent in the seven week period since
the turn of the year, compared with the
corresponding period in 2011. A similar pattern
was recorded for some pig meat products, with the
amounts purchased in the four weeks ending 19
February significantly above year earlier levels.
Almost ten per cent more bacon was purchased,
sausage sales increased seven per cent and sliced
cooked meats by four per cent.
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