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USDA International Egg and Poultry

24 April 2013

USDA International Egg and Poultry - 23 April 2013USDA International Egg and Poultry - 23 April 2013

USDA International Egg and Poultry

Peoples Republic of China

The 2013 forecast for China’s broiler production was lowered earlier this year by 50,000 metric tons to just over 14 million tons. The lower estimated production was in response to media reports of chemical residues found in domestic broiler products at fast food restaurants. Even with 2013’s lower estimated broiler meat production, China’s estimated broiler meat production is 2.6% over 2012 and 42% higher than 2003.

China’s 2013 broiler meat import forecast was raised from previous forecasts as favorable prices for United States (U.S.) poultry products increased processor import demand. The U.S. export price in December 2012 was $1,085 per ton, which was 55% lower than Brazil’s price of $2,381 per ton. Total broiler meat imports for 2013 are estimated to be 6.3% above 2012, but 40% below 2003.

Total China Prodution, Consumption
Import & Export Comparisons
(1,000 Metric Tons)

Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service Official USDA Estimates

U.S. January-February 2013 broiler meat exports to China are 95% higher than the same time frame in 2012 and considerably higher than 2002. U.S. 2012 total broiler meat exports to China were 40% higher than 2011 and 34% above 2002.

U.S. frozen chicken paws and feet exports to China are included in the Other Poultry Meat Category, not the Broiler Meat Category. Chicken paws and feet were the number one U.S. poultry item exported to China in 2012. For 2012 they were about 99% of U.S. other poultry exports and, even with the big U.S. broiler meat export increases, are 53% higher than broiler meat. China was the number 8 U.S. broiler meat destination and the number 2 U.S. other poultry meat export destination.

In November 2012, despite a long history of market access to China, AQSIQ halted U.S. processed meat imports due to new import policies. The U.S. government is currently working to resolve the issue.

China’s 2013 broiler meat exports are forecast to be 2.7% lower than 2012, but 3% higher than 2003. China’s cooked poultry exports are facing challenges this year due to new trade policies in major markets. Over the last few years Japan has lowered its import tariff for Thailand and it currently stands at 2% while China’s remains at 6%.

Total China Broiler Meat Imports
& U.S. Broiler Meat & Other Poultry China Export Comparisons
(1,000 Metric Tons)

*Does not include Turkey Meat and Egg Products
Sources: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service Official USDA
Estimates; Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics/USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service

Meanwhile, The European Union has implemented a new import quota policy which added products containing broiler meat (at or below 57%) and duck meat to the amount subject to quota. Some anticipate a majority of the quota to be awarded to Brazil and Thailand. The result could negatively impact China’s poultry exports.

On March 31, 2013 China announced avian influenza (AI) was detected in humans in Shanghai and Anhui Province. It was determined to be the AI H7N9. The AI H7N9 virus had not been contracted by humans previously. According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture H7N9 has not created an epidemic among poultry with tests coming back mostly negative. However, as of April 22, 2013 104 human infections with 21 deaths included have been recorded.

The country’s poultry has experienced a major set back due to a sharp fall in market demand. While most cases are in the Yangtze River Delta region, new cases have been found in Beijing. As preventive measures Shanghai and Beijing have closed all live poultry markets in the cities and surrounding rural districts. For Shanghai, over 2.5 million live birds a week are transported into the city from surrounding regions for wholesale and wet market slaughter and sale.

Consumer prices have fallen 5% over a recent 10 period, although animal protein prices were trending lower before the crisis began. Live bird prices have also dropped markedly, however, some are noticing prices are appearing to be stabilizing. Day old chick prices have also dropped 80% in the last 2 weeks. As of April 15, 2013 an estimated 16.7 billion yuan (US $2.7 billion*) the China poultry industry has lost in sales of chicks, live chickens and chicken products.

*April 21, 2013 exchange rate of 0.161543 US dollar to the yuan)

Sources: Rabobank International; USDA/FAS GAIN Report 13014; USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service Official USDA Estimates; Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics/USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service; World Health Organization; ThePoultrySite; various other news sources.

April 2013

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