USDA WASDE
11 December 2012
USDA WASDE - December 2012
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 50 million bushels
reflecting lower prospects for exports again this month. Projected exports are lowered 50
million bushels reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected
competition from foreign supplies. U.S. exports are projected 45 million bushels lower for
Hard Red Winter wheat, 10 million bushels lower for Soft Red Winter wheat, and 5 million
bushels lower for Hard Red Spring wheat. White wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels.
The projected 2012/13 season-average farm price for all wheat is lowered 10 cents at the
midpoint and the range is narrowed to $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.6 million tons higher as a 3.7-million-ton
increase in world production more than offsets lower beginning stocks mostly reflecting higher
2011/12 wheat feeding for China. China wheat production for 2012/13 is raised 2.6 million
tons based on the latest official estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Production
for Australia and Canada are raised 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, also
based on the latest official government estimates. Partly offsetting these increases are small
reductions for Brazil and EU-27.
Global wheat exports for 2012/13 are raised slightly this month. Exports are raised 0.5 million
tons each for Australia, EU-27, and India, more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Exports are
lowered for Paraguay and Turkey. Imports are raised for Brazil, China, Iran, and Russia, but
lowered for Turkey. Global wheat feeding for 2012/13 is raised slightly with reductions for EU-
27 and Australia more than offset by increases for China, Canada, and Iran. For EU-27,
higher corn imports and feeding offset the reduction in expected wheat feed use. World wheat
ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 2.8 million tons higher on increases for the United
States, Australia, Russia, and EU-27.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supply and use projections for 2012/13 are unchanged
this month, but price outlooks for corn and sorghum are lowered based on prices reported to
date. The season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents at the midpoint and the
projected range is narrowed to $6.80 to $8.00 per bushel. Prices received by farmers through
October remained well below cash market bids and this year’s early corn harvest appears to
have boosted early season marketings placing further downward pressure on the outlook for
the season-average price. The season-average sorghum price is lowered 10 cents at the
midpoint and the projected range is narrowed to $6.50 to $7.70 per bushel. The projected
barley and oats season-average price ranges are narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.10 to
$6.80 per bushel and $3.55 to $4.05 per bushel, respectively.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 7.0 million tons higher mostly reflecting
a larger reported corn crop for China. Beginning coarse grain stocks for 2012/13 are lowered
1.0 million tons in part reflecting higher 2011/12 corn exports for Argentina. Global 2012/13
corn production is raised 9.4 million tons with China corn output up 8.0 million tons based on
recent estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Strong price incentives to expand
corn plantings and favorable summer rainfall, particularly in the northeast provinces, support
increases in area and yields raising them to new records. Corn production for Canada is
raised 1.5 million tons this month to a new record on higher yields and a record area as
reported by Statistics Canada. Russia corn production is raised 1.0 million tons, also a new
record. Corn production is increased for North Korea and Chile, up 0.4 million tons, and 0.3
million tons, respectively. Offsetting these increases are reductions for Argentina, Moldova,
and Ukraine corn, down 0.5 million tons each, with lower expected area for Argentina, lower
area and yields for Moldova, and lower yields for Ukraine. Belarus corn production is also
lowered 0.2 million tons.
Other notable 2012/13 coarse grain production changes this month include a 0.6-million-ton
reduction for Canada barley, a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Australia sorghum, and 0.3-millionton and 0.2-million-ton reductions, respectively, for Canada and Australia oats. All are based
on the latest official estimates from Statistics Canada and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics and Sciences.
Global 2012/13 coarse grain trade is increased mostly on higher expected corn imports and
exports. Corn imports are raised 1.5 million tons for EU-27. Corn exports are raised 0.5
million tons each for Canada and Russia. Increases in local marketing year 2011/12 exports
for Argentina, Paraguay, and South Africa support higher 2012/13 consumption this month for
Northern Hemisphere countries. Global corn consumption for 2012/13 is raised 8.7 million
tons mostly with increases of 6.0 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, for China and
EU-27 corn feeding. Corn feed and residual use is also raised for Canada and Russia, but
lowered for Argentina, Ukraine, and Moldova. Corn food, seed, and industrial use is raised 2.0
million tons for China, also boosting global corn consumption. World corn ending stocks for
2012/13 are projected 0.4 million tons lower, mostly on reductions in Argentina, Colombia, and
Ukraine. Small increases in a number of countries, including Canada, are partly offsetting.
RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2012/13 all rice and rice-by-type
supply and use balance sheets. Although total use for all rice is unchanged at 230.0 million
cwt, the export forecast is raised 2.0 million to 105.0 million, and domestic and residual use is
lowered the same amount to 125.0 million. The increase in the export forecast is all in longgrain rice destined for markets in Latin America. The rough rice and the combined brown- and
milled-rice export forecasts are each raised 1.0 million cwt from last month. The long-grain
export forecast at 74.0 million cwt is up nearly 11 percent from the prior year. All rice ending
stocks at 30.1 million cwt are unchanged from a month ago. The rice-by-type ending stocks
projections at 15.1 million cwt for long-grain rice and 12.9 million for combined medium- and
short-grain rice are also the same as a month ago.
The 2012/13 all rice and rice-by-type season-average farm price forecasts are unchanged
from last month. The long-grain, combined medium- and short-grain, and all rice seasonaverage farm price forecasts (midpoints) are $14.20 per cwt, $17.00, and $15.00, respectively.
World 2012/13 rice supplies are up more than the increase in total use resulting in a slight
increase in global ending stocks. Global rice production is projected at a record 465.3 million
tons, up 1.0 million from last month due primarily to higher forecasts for Japan, North Korea,
and Vietnam. Vietnam’s 2012/13 rice crop is raised 610,000 tons to a record 27.7 million tons
based on a U.S. Agricultural Attaché report from Vietnam. According to the report, the
Mekong River Delta expects to reach a rice planted area of up to 1.68 million hectares, over
100,000 hectares more than average for the Spring crop due to the favorable moderate
flooding level that also allowed growers to start planting the crop earlier. North Korea’s crop is
raised 16 percent to 1.74 million tons based on a report from the World Food Program. The
North Korean rice crop benefited from an increase in fertilizer availability and favorable
growing season and harvest weather. Japan’s crop is raised 3 percent to 7.8 million tons, as
both area harvested and average yield are raised, based on the latest official government
estimate from Japan. Global consumption for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 468.5 million
tons due mostly to increases for Japan, North Korea, and a number of countries in SubSaharan Africa. Global 2012/13 trade is changed little from a month ago. World ending
stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 102.5 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month, but down
3.2 million from the year earlier. Ending stocks are raised for Vietnam and Japan but lowered
for Iraq, Iran, and South Korea.
OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 91.3 million tons, down
slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to
1.570 billion due to strong foreign demand for soybean products. Soybean oil production is
raised 460 million pounds on the increased crush and on a higher soybean oil extraction rate.
Soybean oil exports are projected at 1.8 billion pounds, up sharply from 1.2 billion last month
on exceptionally strong November sales of just over 700 million pounds to several markets
including China, Mexico, and undeclared destinations. Soybean meal exports are raised 0.3
million short tons to 8.2 million on strong sales to EU-27, Egypt, and several Asian markets
including the Philippines and South Korea. Soybean meal domestic use is reduced 0.1 million
short tons to 29.4 million in line with current meat production forecasts. With soybean exports
unchanged at 1.345 billion bushels, soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 130
million bushels, down 10 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and products are all projected lower this month. The U.S. seasonaverage soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $13.55 to $15.55 per bushel, down
35 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $440 to $470 per
short ton, down 15 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected
at 49 to 53 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 463 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from
last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases
projected for soybeans, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed only partly offset by reductions for
rapeseed and peanuts. Global soybean production is projected at 267.7 million tons, up 0.1
million. Increased production for Canada is mostly offset by lower projections for EU-27 and
Paraguay. Lower soybean production for Paraguay reflects reduced yields in line with
historical production and yield revisions. Global rapeseed production is projected slightly lower
as reduced estimates for Canada and EU-27 are mostly offset by a larger crop in Russia.
Global sunflowerseed production is projected at 35.7 million tons, up 0.9 million as larger
crops in EU-27, Russia, and India are only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina.
The Argentina crop is reduced on lower area reflecting the impact of excessive moisture
throughout the planting season.
Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 115.2 million tons, up 0.5 million from last
month. Increased soybean exports from Canada and increased peanut exports from India
account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 66.9 million tons,
up 0.3 million from last month reflecting higher rapeseed stocks in EU-27 and Australia.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is decreased 266,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower beginning stocks and imports more than offsetting higher production. Beet sugar production is raised to reflect the strong start to the fiscal year. Imports and exports of sugar under the re-export programs are decreased due to the narrow gap between U.S. and world-traded sugar prices. Imports from Mexico are decreased in line with reduced supplies in Mexico.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production
is reduced from last month as lower pork production more than offsets higher beef production.
Beef production is raised as both fed and non-fed cattle slaughter is expected to be higher and
forecast carcass weights are raised. Pork production forecasts are reduced from last month
as first-quarter slaughter is expected to be slightly lower and carcass weights are reduced in
the first half of the year. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December
28, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the first half of 2013. Poultry
production forecasts for 2013 are unchanged. For 2012, the total meat production forecast is
raised as higher forecast fourth-quarter beef and broiler production more than offsets lower
expected pork production. Cattle slaughter has been higher than expected and carcass
weights remain high. Hog slaughter and carcass weights in the fourth quarter are forecast
lower than last month. The broiler production forecast is raised based on production data to
date. Turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is raised for both 2012 and 2013
based on hatchery data.
Red meat and poultry import and export forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Cattle prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013, reflecting strong demand for cattle through
the end of this year and into 2013. The hog price forecasts for both 2012 and 2013 are raised
as lower forecast production is expected to support prices. Broiler prices are raised for both
2012 and 2013 as demand has been firm. The turkey price forecast for 2012 is raised slightly,
but the forecast for 2013 is unchanged from last month.
The 2012 and 2013 milk production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Lower forecast
fat basis exports in 2012 reflect weakness in butter exports but exports in 2013 are raised on
higher expected cheese and whey protein solids shipments.
Cheese prices are forecast lower in 2012 on current weakness but the forecast is raised for
2013 as demand is expected to improve. Butter prices for both 2012 and 2013 are lowered as
demand is expected to remain relatively weak. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are
raised for 2012 and 2013. The Class III price for 2012 is reduced on the lower cheese price
but the Class IV price is unchanged as the lower butter price is offset by a higher NDM price.
For 2013, Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised as prices for cheese, NDM, and
whey are increased. The 2012 all milk price is unchanged from last month at $18.50 to $18.60
per cwt, but the range of the 2013 price is tightened to $19.15 to $19.95 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly lower production, higher exports,
and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 190,000 bales, as a
decrease for Texas is partially offset by increases for the Southeast and Delta. Domestic mill
use is unchanged. Exports are raised 200,000 bales to 11.8 million, reflecting relatively strong
sales in November. Ending stocks are now estimated at 5.4 million bales, equal to nearly 36
percent of total use. The forecast of 65-71 cents per pound for the marketing year average
price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end of the range.
This month’s revisions to the 2012/13 world cotton supply and demand estimates show lower
beginning and ending stocks, due mainly to a technical adjustment for Turkey beginning in
2005/06. World production is raised 70,000 bales, as increases for several African Franc
Zone countries are mostly offset by reductions for Australia and the United States. World
consumption also is raised slightly. Forecast world trade is increased 1.1 million bales due to
higher expected import demand by China, India, and Vietnam. It now appears that two-thirds
of China’s 2012 crop may be purchased for the national reserve, constraining supplies
available to mills.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
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