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USDA International Meat Review


10 December 2012

USDA International Meat Review - 10 December 2012USDA International Meat Review - 10 December 2012


USDA International Meat Review

Trade Highlights

Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations released its bi-annual Food Outlook report. According to the report, global meat markets are faced with high feed prices, weak consumption and declining profits. With international prices near record highs, growth in world trade is slowing. World meat production during 2012 is forecast at 301.8 MMT, 1.6 percent more than 2011. Most of the world expansion is expected to occur in developing countries. Concerns about the profitability of the meat sector have been obscured by a weakening of the growth in export markets. Increasing feed prices and a slowing of the growth in meat production has pushed up international meat prices in late 2012. World beef production is expected to total 66.8 MMT, a little higher than 2011. Beef production in 2012 has been hindered by drought, high feed prices and government policies. During the first part of 2012, limited beef supplies led to near record beef prices. In the U.S., the world’s largest beef producer, liquidation of the cattle herd continued due to drought. The downsizing of the U.S. herd began in 2008 and has pushed cattle numbers to a 60 year low. Likewise, drought issues are lowering slaughter weights and production in Russia, the Ukraine and Mexico. On the other hand, favorable weather and excellent pasture conditions in New Zealand and Australia have increased beef production. Production in Canada is expected to remain stable. World pork production during 2012 is forecast at 110.8 MMT, which is 1.9 percent higher than 2011 as a result of disease recovery in Asia and increased slaughter in many developed countries. In the U.S., herd liquidation is leading to an increase in slaughter and production. In Canada, negative margins are leading to hog farm failures and a decrease in production. Pork production is forecast to decline in the EU because of welfare and environmental regulations. During 2012, pork production in Russia is expected to decrease due to the continued spread of disease. Conversely, pork production is expanding in China, the world’s largest producer, due to policy support. During 2012, world sheep and goat meat production is expected to total 13.9 MMT, slightly more than 2011, as markets have recovered from two years of declining supplies. Australia and New Zealand have benefited from good pasture conditions and high lamb crops. Production is expected to decline in North America. World meat trade during 2012 is forecast to reach 29.4 MMT, 2.2 percent greater than 2011. World beef trade is predicted to total 8.0 MMT, 1.0 percent higher than 2011. U.S. beef imports are expected to increase to make up for a shortfall in domestic production. The U.S. is the largest beef importing nation. Exports to Russia are projected to increase. On the other hand, Japan’s and South Korea’s beef imports are expected to decline due to increasing domestic supplies. Beef imports by the EU are expected to decrease for the third consecutive year. During 2012, India’s beef exports are projected to grow significantly to a level that would place India as the world’s largest beef exporter. The increase is due to competitive pricing of buffalo meat. Exports from Australia and New Zealand are also forecast to be higher in 2012 due to an increase in herds, favorable weather and pasture conditions and strong demand from the U.S. Exports from Brazil and Uruguay are also expected to increase due to larger cattle inventories. World pork trade during 2012 is forecast to increase 3.0 percent over 2011 to 7.4 MMT. The increase is the result of weaker consumption in traditional sources of exports, such as Canada, the U.S. and the EU, which, in turn, has led to excess supplies. This, along with strong import demand, is expected to boost world pork trade. China’s pork imports, which surged in 2010 and 2011 due to disease outbreaks, are expected to continue growing. Pork exports to Russia and Mexico are also foreseen to increase. Japan’s imports are projected to increase slightly. During 2012, increased supplies in the U.S. are expected to boost exports to record levels. Pork exports from the EU are expected to increase due to competitive prices. During 2012, world sheep and goat meat trade is expected to total 800,000 MT, 1.9 percent more than 2011. The increase is attributed to a global recovery in supplies, record exports to China and strong demand in the Middle East. New Zealand’s lamb exports are expected to rise in part due to China’s approval of more New Zealand processing facilities. Australia’s exports are recovering from three years of drought induced supply shortages. Imports by the EU, the U.S. and Canada are projected to decline due to weaker consumer demand. The complete report can be found on the FAO website at http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/fo/index.htm.

Pacific Rim

Japan's Beef Imports for September 2012

*Includes cheek, head & cooked meats.
Source: Japan's Agriculture & Livestock Industries Corporation

Recently, Japan’s Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC) published Japan’s beef and pork import statistics for September 2012. According to the data, Japan’s beef imports during September fell 26.8 percent from the previous month and 5.4 percent from September 2011 to 42,017 MT. Specifically, frozen beef imports totaled 24,497 MT, which was 32.6 percent less than the previous month and was 6.5 percent less than September 2011. Fresh, chilled beef imports totaled 17,493 MT, which was 16.6 percent less than the previous month and was 3.8 percent less than September 2011. Japan’s beef imports from Australia during September equaled 23,941 MT. This was down 26.3 percent from August and was down 16.3 percent from September 2011. During the first three quarters of the year, Japan imported 239,902 MT of beef from Australia, which was 3.0 percent below a year ago. Australia was the main beef import market for Japan with 61.5 percent of the total. During September, Japan imported 13,082 MT of beef from the U.S. Although this was 22.0 percent lower than the previous month, it was 13.3 percent higher than September 2011. During the first three quarters of the year, Japan’s beef imports from the U.S. were 14.9 percent more than a year ago, totaling 101,594 MT. Beef imports from New Zealand during September fell 52.1 percent from the previous month to 1,663 MT. However, this was 23.0 percent higher than September 2011. Total yearto- date beef imports from New Zealand equaled 25,978 MT, which was up 6.9 percent over last year. Overall, Japan’s beef imports during the first three quarters of 2012 equaled 390,325 MT, 2.6 percent more than the same period a year ago. Japan’s beef marketings during August totaled 78,895 MT, which was up 10.5 percent over the previous month and was up 11.8 percent over a year ago. Marketings of imported beef equaled 46,781 MT, 1.9 percent higher than last year. Domestic beef marketings were 30.2 percent more than last year, totaling 32,114 MT. At the end of August, Japan’s beef stocks totaled 106,116 MT. This was 6.8 percent higher than the previous month and was 6.8 percent higher than a year ago. Stocks of imported beef equaled 93,312 MT, which was up 7.0 percent over last year. Stocks of domestic beef were up 5.7 percent over a year ago, amounting to 12,804 MT.

Japan's Pork Imports for September 2012

*Includes edible offal.
Source: Japan's Agriculture & Livestock Industries Corporation

Japan’s pork imports during September totaled 62,862 MT. This was 13.6 percent lower than August but was 3.6 percent higher than September 2011. More specifically, imports of frozen pork equaled 43,716 MT, which was down 11.6 percent from the previous month but was up 13.3 percent over September 2011. Imports of fresh, chilled pork equaled 19,143 MT, which was down 17.9 percent from the previous month and was down 13.2 percent from September 2011. During September, Japan imported 24,397 MT of pork from the U.S. This was 8.1 percent lower than the previous month and was 4.1 percent lower than September 2011. During the first three quarters of the year, Japan’s pork imports from the U.S. totaled 237,328 MT, which was 1.0 percent less than last year. The U.S. was the largest provider of pork to Japan with 40.8 percent of the total imports. Pork imports from Canada during September fell 16.5 percent from the previous month to 13,572 MT. However, this was nearly 1.0 percent higher than September 2011. Year-to-date pork imports from Canada were 5.5 percent more than a year ago, totaling 128,098 MT. During September, Japan imported 7,976 MT of pork from Denmark. This was 41.7 percent less than the previous month and was 18.7 percent less than September 2011. Total year-to-date pork imports from Denmark equaled 91,330 MT, 6.9 percent lower than a year ago. Overall, Japan’s total pork imports during the first three quarters of 2012 equaled 581,537 MT, which was slightly higher than the same period a year ago. Japan’s pork marketings during August equaled 139,158 MT, which was 4.0 percent more than the previous month but was 1.2 percent less than a year ago. Imported pork marketings totaled 68,176 MT, 1.9 percent lower than last year. Domestic pork marketings equaled 70,981 MT, which was down slightly from a year ago. Japan’s pork stocks at the end of August totaled 175,999 MT. This was 2.8 percent higher than the previous month and was 4.1 percent higher than a year ago. Imported pork stocks equaled 155,400 MT, which was up 5.1 percent over last year. Stocks of domestic pork were down 3.3 percent from a year ago, amounting to 20,599 MT. To obtain further data on Japan’s red meat trade, visit the ALIC website at http://lin.alic.go.jp/alic/statis/dome/data2/e_nstatis.htm.

Oceania

Australia Beef & Veal Exports for November 2012

Source: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry

Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) recently published Australia’s red meat export data for November 2012. According to the numbers, Australia’s beef and veal exports during November fell 4.4 percent from the previous month to 90,042 MT. However, this was up a little over November 2011. More specifically, exports of frozen beef equaled 66,354 MT, which accounted for 73.7 percent of the total. Exports of fresh, chilled beef equaled 23,688 MT. During November, Australia exported 27,834 MT of beef to Japan. Although this was 13.4 percent higher than the previous month, it was 17.0 percent lower than November 2011. Total year-to-date beef exports to Japan equaled 285,369 MT, which was 8.5 percent below a year ago. Japan was the primary beef export market for Australia with 32.5 percent of the total. Australia’s beef exports to the U.S. during November fell 30.4 percent from the previous month and 20.3 percent from November 2011. Year-to-date beef exports to the U.S. were 33.2 percent more than a year ago, totaling 202,314 MT. During November, Australia’s beef exports to South Korea rose 3.6 percent over October and rose 21.0 percent over November 2011 to 15,217 MT. Also, this was the highest single month volume since February 2011. Year-to-date beef exports to South Korea totaled 112,101 MT, which was 16.3 percent less than last year. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date beef and veal exports equaled 877,549 MT, which was 1.2 percent higher than the corresponding period a year ago.

Australia Lamb & Mutton Exports for November 2012

Source: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry

Australia’s lamb exports during November totaled a record 18,725 MT. This was nearly 1.0 percent higher than the previous month and was 30.7 percent higher than November 2011. During November, Australia exported 5,263 MT of lamb to the Middle East, which was down 1.1 percent from the previous month but was up 53.9 percent over November 2011. Total year-to-date lamb exports to the Middle East were 51.5 percent greater than last year, amounting to 47,086 MT. The Middle East was Australia’s largest lamb export market with 27.3 percent of the total. Lamb exports to the U.S. during November fell 3.7 percent from the previous month to 3,391 MT. However, this was up 20.9 percent over November 2011. Year-to-date lamb exports to the U.S. totaled 33,672 MT, 6.4 percent higher than a year ago. During November, Australia’s lamb exports to China totaled a record 3,301 MT. This was 22.6 percent higher than October and was 61.2 percent higher than November 2011. Total year-to-date lamb exports to China equaled 26,641 MT, 37.0 percent greater than a year ago. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date lamb exports reached 172,166 MT, 17.4 percent more than the same period a year ago. In the meantime, Australia’s mutton exports during November rose 11.0 percent over the previous month and 56.9 percent over November 2011 to 13,835 MT. This was the highest single month volume since March 2009. During November, Australia exported 5,541 MT of mutton to the Middle East, which was up 28.4 percent over the previous month and was up 41.9 percent over November 2011. This was the largest monthly volume since May 2009. Year-to-date mutton exports to the Middle East totaled 42,445 MT, 20.3 percent more than a year ago. The Middle East was Australia’s main mutton export market with 45.6 percent of the total. Australia’s mutton exports to China during November rose 5.7 percent over the previous month and 301.7 percent over November 2011 to a record 3,053 MT. Year-to-date mutton exports to China were 167.5 percent greater than last year, amounting to 11,916 MT. Mutton exports to the U.S. during November equaled 574 MT, which 46.4 percent lower than the previous month but was 1.6 percent higher than November 2011. Total year-to-date mutton exports to the U.S. equaled 6,919 MT, 75.5 percent greater than last year. Overall, Australia’s total year-to-date mutton exports equaled 93,065 MT, 27.4 percent more than the corresponding period a year ago. Additional data on Australia’s exports is available on the DAFF website at http://www.daff.gov.au/.

North America

U.S. Lamb, Sheep and Goat Meat Trade Third Quarter 2012

Includes fresh, chilled, frozen, carcasses, cuts, bone-in, boneless
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service/Bureau of Census

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently issued data for U.S. lamb, sheep and goat meat trade. The numbers include fresh, chilled and frozen product, as well as carcasses, cuts and bone-in and boneless product. According to the data, U.S. exports of lamb and sheep meat during the third quarter of 2012 equaled 1,118 MT. Although this was 43.1 percent more than the previous quarter, it was 38.5 percent less than a year ago. During the third quarter, lamb and sheep meat exports to Mexico rose 68.8 percent over the previous quarter and 9.3 percent over a year ago to 879 MT. Year-to-date lamb and sheep meat exports to Mexico were 2.3 percent less than a year ago, amounting to 2,042 MT. Mexico was the main lamb and sheep meat export market for the U.S. with 60.4 percent of the total. Year-to-date lamb and sheep meat exports to Canada totaled 327 MT, 15.6 higher than a year ago. Overall, during the first three quarters of the year, U.S. lamb and sheep meat exports totaled 3,382 MT, 44.3 percent below the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, U.S. lamb and sheep meat imports during the third quarter of 2012 equaled 15,500 MT. This was nearly unchanged from the previous quarter but was up 25.1 percent over a year ago. During the third quarter, lamb and sheep imports from Australia totaled 11,345 MT, which was 11.4 percent more than the previous quarter and was 36.4 percent more than a year ago. During the first three quarters of the year, U.S. lamb and sheep meat imports from Australia were nearly unchanged from last year, totaling 31,541 MT. Australia was the leading supplier of lamb and sheep meat to the U.S. with 68.4 percent of the total imports. During the third quarter, the U.S. imported 4,060 MT of lamb and sheep meat from New Zealand. This was down 23.1 percent from the previous quarter but was up 1.7 percent over a year ago. Total year-to-date lamb and sheep meat imports from New Zealand equaled 14,419 MT, 28.6 percent below last year. Overall, U.S. total lamb and sheep meat imports during the first three quarters of 2012 equaled 46,137 MT, which was 11.1 percent less than the same period a year ago. In the meantime, U.S. goat meat imports during the third quarter totaled 4,974 MT. Although this was 8.7 percent higher than the previous quarter, it was 16.0 percent lower than a year ago. During the third quarter, the U.S. imported 4,734 MT of goat meat from Australia. This was up 89.0 percent over the previous quarter and was up 7.8 percent over a year ago. Total year-to-date goat meat imports from Australia were 16.7 percent less than last year, amounting to 9,861 MT. Australia was the main source of U.S. goat meat imports with 96.9 percent of the total. Overall, U.S. total goat meat imports during the first three quarters of 2012 equaled 10,176 MT, which was 16.0 percent lower than the corresponding period a year ago. Additional data is available on the FAS website http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/.

On November 29, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and USDA FAS released the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. According to the publication, fiscal year (FY) 2013 U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at a record $145.0 billion. This was up from the previous estimate of $143.5 billion. Also, this was up from $135.8 billion in 2012. Exports of livestock products during 2013 are forecast at $18.7 billion, down from the prior estimate of $18.9 billion. This is 1.1 percent higher than 2012. Beef and veal exports during 2013 are projected to total 800,000 MT, lower than the previous forecast of 900,000 MT. This was 4.1 percent less than 2012. The value of beef and veal exports is forecast at $4.8 billion, compared to $4.77 billion in 2012. During 2013, U.S. pork exports are expected to equal 1.8 MMT. This is unchanged from the previous estimate but is 2.0 percent lower than 2012. The value of pork exports is projected to total $5.6 billion, compared to $5.55 in 2012. Beef and pork variety meat exports during 2013 are forecast at 700,000 MT. This is down from the prior forecast of 800,000 MT and is down 7.2 percent from 2012. The value of variety meat exports is forecast at $1.4 billion, compared to $1.41 billion in 2012. FY 2013 U.S. agricultural imports are forecast to value $115.0 billion. This is down from the prior estimate of $117.0 billion. However, this was up from $103.4 billion in 2012. The value of livestock and meat imports in 2013 is expected to total $10.3 billion, unchanged from the previous estimate. However, this is 6.7 percent greater than 2012. Imports of cattle and calves in 2013 are forecast to total 1.9 million head. This is unchanged from the prior forecast and is down 17.6 percent from 2012. The value of imported cattle and calves is expected to be $1.3 billion in 2013. During 2013, beef and veal imports are projected to total 800,000 MT, down from the previous estimate of 900,000 MT. However, this is up 7.5 percent over 2012. The value of beef and veal imports is predicted to equal $4.1 billion in 2013. Live swine imports during 2013 are forecast at 5.5 million head, which is down from the previous forecast of 5.7 million head. This is 4.8 percent less than 2012. The value of imported live swine is expected to be $400 million in 2013. During 2013, pork imports are projected to total 400,000 MT, unchanged from the prior estimate but 14.9 percent higher than 2012. The value of pork imports is predicted to equal $1.3 billion in 2013. The entire report is available on the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov/.

December 2012

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